[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jun 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 05/1500 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm Alex is located
near 30.4N, 73.9W, or about 480 nm W of Bermuda. Alex is moving
ENE, or 60 degrees, at 20 knots. The minimum central pressure is
993 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 50 knots with gusts to
60 knots. 12 ft seas extend up to 150 nm in the eastern semicircle.
Numerous moderate with scattered strong convection extends about
300 nm east of the center. A few trailing rainbands are producing
scattered moderate convection south of the storm in the NW
Caribbean. Alex is expected to continue ENE, passing near or just
north of Bermuda on Monday afternoon. Some slight strengthening is
possible, by Alex is not expected to reach hurricane strength
before the system gradually weakens and transitions to an extra-
tropical cyclone by Tuesday.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 16W from the equator
to 13N, moving westward at 25 knots. Scattered moderate with
isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 09N between 11W
and 20W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 32W from the equator
to 11N, moving westward at 25 knots. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 02N to 06N between 30W and 33W. A recent
scatterometer pass found fresh to strong ENE winds within the
convection area ahead of the wave axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 55W from the equator
to 12N, moving west at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 05N to 12N between 50W and 60W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 76W from the 01N to
13N, moving westward at 10 knots. Isolated moderate convection is
observed in the SW Caribbean from 08N to 13N between 73W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 05N29W. The ITCZ extends from 04N34W to 03N51W along the coast
of NE Brazil. The majority of the deep tropical Atlantic
convection is associated with the tropical waves discussed above.
Isolated weak convection is observed throughout the area.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure with a relaxed gradient is leading to favorable
conditions across the Gulf. Mainly clear skies, gentle winds and
slight seas dominate the basin. A small area of isolated
thunderstorms is observed off the coast of Louisiana.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the Gulf
waters through Tue, allowing moderate to fresh return flow to set
up across the western Gulf. High pressure will weaken Wed through
Thu.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed across the NW Caribbean from 22N83W
to 16N85W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed
between 90 and 210 nm east of this feature. Winds are light to
gentle behind the trough with 1-3 ft seas. Southerly winds are
moderate to fresh ahead of the trough, with 3-6 ft seas.
Winds are gentle in the SW Caribbean with 1-3 ft seas. Winds are
moderate to fresh in the central and eastern basin with 4-7 ft
seas.

For the forecast, high pressure extends from the E Atlantic W-SW
to the Bahamas and will maintain a modest pressure gradient and
moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean basin
through mid week. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across
the south-central Caribbean tonight through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Storm Alex.

Tropical storm Alex dominates the western Atlantic. Outside of
this influence, a 1028 mb high pressure centered near 30N33W
is the main feature in the eastern and central basin. A ridge
extends from this feature towards 25N50W. The gradient between
this feature, and lower pressure over Africa and in the vicinity
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, is generating moderate to fresh NE
winds south of the ridge. Recent scatterometer data found locally
strong NE winds along the coast of Western Sahara. Seas south of
the ridge are 7-9 ft. Winds are gentle to moderate with moderate
seas within the ridge axis and through the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Alex near 30.4N 74.0W
993 mb at 11 AM EDT moving ENE at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds
50 kt gusts 60 kt. Alex will move to 31.7N 70.8W this evening, N
of the area near 33.1N 66.4W Mon morning, 34.2N 61.7W Mon evening,
become extratropical and move to 34.6N 57.4W Tue morning, 34.9N
53.4W Tue evening, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near
35.0N 50.3W Wed morning. Alex will change little in intensity as
it moves to near 35.5N 47.0W early Thu. High pressure will build
westward into the Bahamas to the south of Alex through early Tue
then weaken through Wed night.

$$
Flynn
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