[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jun 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Alex is located north of the NW
Bahamas near 29.1N 76.3W at 5 AM EDT, or about 235 nm ENE of Fort
Pierce, Florida. Alex is moving NE, or 055 degrees, at 19 knots.
Central pressure is 995 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is
45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. A scatterometer satellite pass
earlier tonight captured fresh to strong winds from northern Cuba
to 30N and W of 74W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted over the eastern semicircle, from 60 to 300 nm of the
center. On the forecast track, the tropical storm is expected to
move away from the northwestern Bahamas and move near or just to
the north of Bermuda on Monday afternoon. Some slight strengthening
is possible in the next 24 hours but gradual weakening is
expected by Tue as the system moves ENE across the central
Atlantic and gradually transitions to extra-tropical.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 29W, south of 11N and
moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted from 03.5N to 07.5N between 29W and 33W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 54W, south of 13N and
moving westward at 15 knots. The wave has been repositioned
several degrees west of recent analysis based on long term
satellite and precipitable waters imagery. Overnight scatterometer
wind data showed a modest wind surge to 25 kt accompanying this
wave. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
05N to 12N between 47W and 60W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 75W, south of 12N and
moving westward at 15 knots. A few showers and thunderstorms are
noted near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal
near 14N16.5W to 06N28W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 03N40W
and continues to 04N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is observed from 04N to 09N between 10W and 16W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is present from 01N to 06N
between 15W and 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The weather conditions in the basin have continued to improve
and are fairly tranquil as Tropical Storm Alex moves quickly
away into the western Atlantic. Only a small area of moderate
convection is noted across the Louisiana coastal waters across
the Atchafalaya Basin. A much drier airmass now encompasses the
Gulf and is suppressing the development of convection. Weak high
pressure is centered across the central Gulf and yielding only
light to locally moderate anticyclonic winds. Seas of 3-4 ft are
found E of 90W and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the Gulf
today then will recenter across the eastern Gulf Sun night
through Tue, allowing moderate to fresh return flow to set up
across the western Gulf. High pressure will weaken Wed through
Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent low-level flow associated with the circulation of
Tropical Storm Alex to the north of the NW Bahamas is producing
a 60 nm wide line of thunderstorms extending from the NE coast of
Honduras along 84W to the south central coast of Cuba along 80W.
Eight to twelve inches of rain fell across the western provinces
of Cuba during the past few days, from Pinar del Rio to Matanzas,
with isolated parts in Pinar del Rio receiving up to 16 inches.
Lower amounts have been reported in the central parts of the
country. Strong showers and thunderstorms continue over NE
portions of Nicaragua. Elsewhere, conditions are fairly tranquil.

Overnight scatterometer satellite data depicted fresh to strong
southerly winds N of 18N and between 78W and 82W associated with
the wind envelope of Tropical Storm Alex. Winds have diminished
very slightly in recent hours there. Seas in these waters are 4-6
ft. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the SE Caribbean with
seas of 4-6 ft. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds
and seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, fresh S to SW winds will continue across the
waters south of Cuba through this afternoon as Alex moves off to
the NE toward Bermuda. High pressure extending from the E Atlc
W-SW to the Bahamas will maintain a modest pressure gradient and
moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean basin
through mid week. Strong trade winds are expected across the
souther central Caribbean Tue night and Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Storm Alex.

Outside of the influence of Alex, the tropical Atlantic is
dominated by a subtropical ridge positioned near the island of
Madeira. A surface trough extends from 28N56W to 36N57W and it is
producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms to the
east of the trough axis. Overnight scatterometer satellite data
indicated that fresh to strong winds were occurring N of 28N and
between 56W and 61W. Seas in that area are 6-8 ft. Farther south,
an upper level low is located about 300 nm to the E of the
Leeward Islands, and is now drifting to the southeast. Divergent
flow aloft results in scattered showers from 20N to 24 and between
53W and 58W. Fairly tranquil weather conditions are present in
the rest of the basin.

The pressure gradient as the result of the subtropical ridge and
lower pressures over the deep tropics is causing fresh to locally
strong trades S of 20N and between 35W and the Lesser Antilles.
Easterly swell is producing seas of 6-9 ft in this region, with
the highest seas being found near 11N53W. Fresh to locally strong
winds are noted S of 25N and E of 35W. The strongest winds are
occurring offshore Mauritania, especially E of 29W, and offshore
Western Sahara. Seas are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate
or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Alex will continue
moving quickly NE and reach near 30.5N 74.0W this afternoon,
reach near 32.0N 70.0W Sun night, then continue moving NE to ENE
and pass just N of Bermuda Mon afternoon. High pressure will build
westward into the Bahamas to the south of Alex through early Tue
then weaken through Wed night.

$$
Stripling
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