[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jun 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone One: The center of Potential Tropical
Cyclone One is located near 22.6N 86.4W at 1800 UTC, or 130 nm NNE
of Cozumel, Mexico and 340 nm SW of Ft. Myers, Florida. The low
pressure center is moving NE, or 035 degrees, at 4 kt and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
starting later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1003 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 kt with gusts to
45 kt. Winds to 35 kt are found within 60 nm across the eastern
semicircle and extend across the northern entrance to the Yucatan
Channel. Fresh to strong S-SE winds, and 6-11 ft seas, are in the
NW Caribbean Sea, south of western Cuba. Scattered to numerous
strong convection is across the NW Caribbean from 20N northward
across the Yucatan Channel to 24N, and then northeastward across
the west half of Cuba and the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection extends further east to the W Bahamas.
On the forecast track, the system should move across the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight, across the southern
and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday, and
then over the southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern
Bahamas Saturday afternoon through Sunday. The system is expected
to develop a well-defined center and become a tropical storm later
today, and some slight strengthening is possible while it
approaches Florida today and tonight. Additional strengthening is
possible after the system moves east of Florida over the western
Atlantic late Saturday and Sunday. This system is expected to
produce heavy rains in the eastern sections of the Yucatan
Peninsula, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Friday.
Heavy rains began to impact South Florida and the Florida Keys
this morning, and will continue through Saturday. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC
Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W, from 13N southward,
moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection, likely enhanced by the nearby ITCZ, is from 05N to 07N
between 28W and 31W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W, from 14N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is mainly
inland over far NE Venezuela.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along W, from 12N southward,
moving westward 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers are noted in the
SW Caribbean Sea near the northern terminus of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Guinea and
Sierra-Leone near 08N13W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from
05N22W to 05N28W then resumes from 06N33W to the coast of French
Guiana near 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection associated with
the monsoon trough is from 02N to 06N east of 17W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 240 nm north of the western segment
of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, currently located just offshore the
northeast Yucatan Peninsula.

Near Potential Tropical Cyclone One, fresh to strong SE-E winds,
potentially 30 to 35 kt at times, are impacting the Yucatan
Channel and the Straits of Florida, extending northward to 26N.
Seas are 6 to 8 ft across the southeast Gulf, except 8 to 11 ft
within 90 nm east of the low pressure center. Elsewhere gentle to
moderate cyclonic flow continues across the basin, with seas of 3
to 6 ft. Seas in the Gulf of Mexico are lowest in northern and
western portions of the basin away from Potential Tropical Cyclone
One.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move to
23.9N 85.2W this evening, 25.8N 82.7W Sat morning, 27.7N 79.8W Sat
evening, 29.7N 76.5W Sun morning, 31.4N 72.7W Sun evening, and
32.7N 68.8W Mon morning. One will become extratropical as it moves
to near 34.0N 61.0W early Tue. Weak high pressure will dominate
the Gulf after the exit of One.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, located of the NE Yucatan
Peninsula.

The latest surface observations continue to indicate fresh to
strong SE winds in the NE Caribbean, driven by the nearby
Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Specifically, NOAA Buoy 42056
reported a peak sustained wind of 27 kt with gusts to 33 kt
earlier this morning. The latest report from the buoy at 1610 UTC
was 20 kt sustained winds with gusts to 23 kt. Heavy rainfall
continues over the NE Caribbean and W Cuba; Punta del Este, Isle
of Youth reported 6.1 inches of precipitation over the last 24
hrs, with additional stations reporting near 5 inches. Elsewhere
in the central and eastern Caribbean, gentle to moderate trade
flow persists with 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move to
23.9N 85.2W this evening, 25.8N 82.7W Sat morning, 27.7N 79.8W Sat
evening, 29.7N 76.5W Sun morning, 31.4N 72.7W Sun evening, and
32.7N 68.8W Mon morning. One will become extratropical as it moves
to near 34.0N 61.0W early Tue. Strong winds and high seas will
continue across the NW Caribbean and S of west and central Cuba
through early Sat afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tropical Atlantic is dominated by 1025 mb high pressure
centered southwest of the Azores. Anticyclonic flow is gentle
across the discussion area north of 19N, increasing to moderate to
locally fresh south of 19N. Strong NE winds have recently been
reported in Cabo Verde, the Canary Islands, and far eastern
Atlantic waters. Scattered showers are from 23N to 31N between
60W and 68W. Seas are 3-6 ft across the basin, increasing to 6-7
ft in strongest winds near the ITCZ and east of Cabo Verde.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move to
23.9N 85.2W this evening, 25.8N 82.7W Sat morning, 27.7N 79.8W Sat
evening, 29.7N 76.5W Sun morning, 31.4N 72.7W Sun evening, and
32.7N 68.8W Mon morning. One will become extratropical as it moves
to near 34.0N 61.0W early Tue. High pressure will build westward
into the Bahamas Tue.

$$
Mahoney
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