[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031211 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jun 3 2022

Updated to include information from the 1200 UTC Intermediate
Advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone One

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1010 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE is located near
22.4N 86.8W at 1200 UTC, or about 110 nm N of Cozumel in Mexico,
and about 365 nm SW of Fort Myers in Florida. The low pressure
center is moving NE, or 040 degrees, 05 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Winds to 35 kt are
found within 50 nm across the eastern semicircle and extend across
the northern entrance to the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to strong
S-SE winds, and 6-10 ft seas, are in the NW the Caribbean Sea,
south of western Cuba. Scattered to numerous strong convection is
across the NW Caribbean from the Gulf of Honduras northward across
the Yucatan Channel to 23N, and then northeastward across the
west half of Cuba and adjacent Caribbean coastal waters.
Convection across the Yucatan Peninsula has ended for the time
being as well as the waters to the north. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection extends from central Cuba across the
central Bahama. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating this system overnight found reliable evidence of
winds to 35 kt at the surface. However, they could not find
westerly winds at the surface and a close low center. The system
therefore remains a Potential Tropical Cyclone, but is expected to
become better organized by this afternoon and reach Tropical
Storm status as it moves northeastward towards southwest Florida.
The current forecast moves this system inland across southwestern
Florida late tonight. This system is expected to produce heavy
rains in the eastern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba through Friday. Heavy rains will begin
to affect South Florida and the Florida Keys beginning on Friday,
and continuing through Saturday. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W, from 14N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation
is related more to the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W, from 14N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate is
within 240 nm to the east of the tropical wave, south of 12N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W, from 12N
southward, moving westward 5 to 105 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the tropical
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 08N13W to 05.5N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05.5N18W, to
03.5N23W to 05N27W, then resumes from 05N31W to 03N49W.
Precipitation:

Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong is from 03N to
06N between 04W and 20W, and from 03.5N to 09N between 30W and
57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, that is just offshore of the
northeast Yucatan Peninsula.

Fresh to strong SE-E winds, and likely a narrow band of 30 to 35
kt winds associated with the Potential Tropical Cyclone One, are
impacting the Yucatan Channel, extending northward to 24N.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail elsewhere across the
southeast Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Seas are 5 to 8
ft across the southeast Gulf, except 8 to 11 ft within 90 nm east
of the low pressure center. Elsewhere gentle to moderate cyclonic
winds are across the basin, with seas of 3 to 6 ft.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One One will move NE today and reach
near 23.5N 85.5W as a Tropical Storm this afternoon, reach near
25.3N 83.2W tonight, then move NE across S central Florida Sat
morning, reaching near 27.1N 80.5W Sat afternoon, then continue NE
and across the western Atlc Sat night through Sun and exit north
of 31N Sun night. Weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf after
the exit of One.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, that is in the northern parts of
the Yucatan Peninsula.

Fresh to strong S-SE winds, and seas of 6 to 10 feet, are in the
NW Caribbean Sea, related to the Potential Tropical Cyclone One,
and extend to the southwest coast of Cuba. Moderate to fresh E to
SE winds prevail elsewhere across the basin east of 78W, where
seas are 3 to 5 feet.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move NE today and reach near
23.5N 85.5W as a Tropical Storm this afternoon, reach near 25.3N
83.2W tonight, then move NE across S central Florida Sat morning,
reaching near 27.1N 80.5W Sat afternoon, then continue NE and
across the western Atlc Sat night through Sun and exit north of
31N Sun night. Weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf after the
exit of One.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough has become ill defined along 28N/29N between 70W
and 76W, while satellite imagery suggests a low center in the low
levels of the atmosphere near 31N70W. A surface ridge extends
from a 1023 mb high pressure center that is near 31N30W, WSW
across the basin to near 24N73W. Broad surface anticyclonic light
to gentle wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward,
and E of 45W. South of the ridge, fresh NE trade winds are
occurring from 06N to a line from 20N35W to 14N55W. Seas in the
trade wind zone are 6 to 9 ft in a mixed of N and NE swell.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One offshore of the NE coast of
Yucatan Peninsula will move NE today and reach near 23.5N 85.5W as
a Tropical Storm this afternoon, move NE across S central Florida
Sat morning, reaching near to 27.1N 80.5W Sat afternoon, then
accelerate NE across the W Atlc and reach near 31.0N 74.0W Sun
afternoon. One will strengthen slightly across the Atlc and exit
the region Sun night. High pressure will build westward into the
Bahamas Tue.

$$
Stripling/Mahoney
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