[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011109
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jun 01 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A large area of disturbed weather located near the Yucatan
Peninsula is interacting with an upper-level trough over the Gulf
of Mexico and producing a broad region of rapidly increasing
numerous strong convection over most of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea north of 16N and west of 81W. Similar activity is noted from
12N to 16N west of 81W to just inland the coast of Nicaragua and
northeastern Honduras. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over the eastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula. A
recent ASCAT data pass depicted fresh to strong southeast winds
over northwestern Caribbean convection. Environmental conditions
appear marginally conducive for gradual development, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression by the weekend as
it moves northeastward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and crosses the Florida Peninsula.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across
portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula,
Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading
across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on
Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western
Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor
the progress of this system. This disturbance has a medium chance
of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please
refer to the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://hurricanes.gov/ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 52/53W south
of 13N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is east of the wave axis from 07N to
11N between 44-50W, and from 03N to 06N between 46W- 50W. Isolated
showers and  thunderstorms are elsewhere from 02N to 13N between
45W-56W.

A central Caribbean tropical is along 72W south of 11N. It is
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Only a few showers and thunderstorms
are seen along the wave axis just south of Lake Maracaibo in
Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea near 11N15W and extends southwestward to 08N18W, where
overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to
the ITCZ to 05N25W to 03N31W and to 03N39W. Numerous moderate
strong convection is within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ
between 32W-37W. Scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm north of the ITCZ between 29W-32W, and within 60 nm
south of the ITCZ between 23W-29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure extends from the southeastern U.S. west-southwest
to along 30N, reaching to near 94W. The associated gradient
between the high pressure and broad low pressure west of the
area is allowing moderate to fresh southeast winds to exist
over the western Gulf and south-central Gulf. Light to gentle
east to southeast winds are over the eastern Gulf and the
rest of the central Gulf. Wave heights are in the range of 4-6
ft, except for slighter lower wave heights of 3-5 ft in the
southeastern Gulf, and higher wave heights of 5-7 ft in the west-
central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 91W-94W.

Broken to overcast multilayer clouds, with scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are confined to south of 25N and
east of 93W as well as south of 22N between 93W-96W. The activity
is more widespread just north and in the vicinity of the
Yucatan Channel.

As for the forecast, a large and complex area of low pressure
located near the Yucatan Peninsula is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over a broad region. This area of low
pressure is likely to become a tropical depression by the weekend
as it moves into the northwestern Caribbean Sea, the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico and crosses the Florida peninsula. Heavy rain and
increased winds and seas are likely over portions of the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this week into the weekend.
Otherwise, a high pressure ridge that extends from the western
Atlantic across the northern Gulf will maintain moderate to fresh
southeast winds over the western and central sections of the Gulf
basin through tonight. Winds there become fresh northeast through
late Fri in response to the area of low pressure.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about
a large area of disturbed weather near the Yucatan Peninsula that
has potential for tropical cyclone formation.

The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north of the
area and lower pressure in Colombia is supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds in much of the Caribbean Sea, except for an
area of fresh to strong trade winds that is south of 13N between
70W-73W to along and near the coast of Colombia and Venezuela.
Fresh to strong southeast winds are over the northwestern
Caribbean as mentioned earlier under Special Features. The wave
heights range from 5-7 ft in the central and northwestern
Caribbean Sea to 4-6 ft elsewhere except for 3-5 ft north
of 15N between 64W-80W and slighter lower heights of 2-4 ft
near the entrance to the Windward Passage.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is increasing
over the southwestern Caribbean.

As for the forecast, the large area of low pressure located near
the Yucatan Peninsula and that is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over a broad region is likely to become a
tropical depression by the weekend as it moves into the
northwestern Caribbean Sea, the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and
crosses the Florida peninsula. Heavy rain and increased winds and
seas are possible late this week in association with this system.
Otherwise, generally moderate to fresh trades will continue
through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 79W from 24N to 29N. Meanwhile,
a mid to upper-level low is positioned offshore northern Florida
near 30N77W. Upper diffluence present to east and southeast of
the low is helping to sustain numerous shower and thunderstorm
activity that over the southern waters near the surface trough
south of 25N between 78W-81W. Similar activity exists south of
30N between 70W-78W, where the upper diffluent flow pattern is
more prevalent. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are east of
the trough to 74W from 26N to 29N. Mainly gentle easterly winds
are elsewhere west of 70W.

A central Atlantic surface trough is analyzed from 27N54W to
22N54W to 18N56w. Small isolated showers and thunderstorms
are within 60 nm either side of this trough from 20N to 24N,
and from 25N to 27N.

In the far eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from near
31N16W to 29N23W and northwest to 32N31W. Broken to overcast
mostly low and mid-level clouds are noted along and within 60-120
nm south of the front between 23W-29W and also north of the
front to 32N between 23W-31W. Isolated showers and/or patches
of rain are possible within these clouds. A recent altimeter data
pass revealed wave heights of 10-14 ft behind the front.

A 1019 mb high center is analyzed near 29N44W. Another 1019 mb
high center is to the west near 26N63W. Light to gentle winds are
near the high centers. Gentle to moderate east winds are
elsewhere north of 20N northward, while moderate to locally trade
winds are from 20N southward. The wave heights range from 2-3 ft
north of 26N west of 60W to 4-6 ft elsewhere.

As for the forecast, a  trough will shift northeast from the
Bahamas over the next few days. It will continue to bring showers
and thunderstorms to most of the western part of the area through
Fri. A tropical depression is likely to form in the far
northwestern Caribbean Sea or southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Fri.
It is expected to track northeastward possibly crossing the
Florida peninsula over the weekend, then move into the region.
This system is expected to bring heavy rain and increased winds
and seas to the western portion of the area this weekend and into
early next week.

$$
Aguirre
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