[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jun 01 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:

The monsoon trough extends from central Guatemala, through SE
Nicaragua, to coastal Colombia near 11N74W. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 145 nm on the
northeastern side of the monsoon trough, from north central
Nicaragua to Belize and Guatemala, and in the SE Yucatan
Peninsula and its coastal waters. Other isolated moderate to
locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 80W
westward. A large area of disturbed weather has developed near
the Yucatan Peninsula, partially related to the remnants of
Agatha, that are interacting with an upper level Gulf of Mexico
trough. It is likely for this system to become a tropical
depression by Friday, as it moves northeastward across the
Yucatan Peninsula, the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall, and the
threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding, and
mudslides, are likely in parts of southeastern Mexico, the
Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple
of days. It is easy for the precipitation to spread to western
Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and
Saturday. Anyone with interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, in
western Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula, should
monitor the progress of this system. This disturbance has a
medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours. Please, refer to the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather
Outlook, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the
website: https://hurricanes.gov/, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 800 nm to the east
of the tropical wave, and within 520 nm to the west of the
tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
no significant deep convective precipitation is in the waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W, to
06N22W, 03N31W, 04N33W, and 03N39W. Precipitation: scattered
strong is within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 30W and
38W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated  strong is within 120
nm to the south of the ITCZ between 30W and 38W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from
40W eastward.

A surface trough is along 42W/43W from 03N southward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120
nm on either side of the trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge is along 30N in Florida, to 29N/30N from Florida
to east Texas. Fresh SE winds are within 270 nm to the north of
the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds
are elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. The wave heights range from
4 feet to 6 feet from 21N to 29N. The wave heights range from 2
feet to 4 feet elsewhere.

Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong, has pushed its way into the
Gulf of Mexico, covering the area that is from 27N southward.
This cloudiness and precipitation has moved into the area from
the Bahamas and the Atlantic Ocean, the NW Caribbean Sea, and
the Yucatan Peninsula.

A large and complex area of low pressure has developed near the
Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This
system is likely to become a tropical depression by Friday, as
it moves northeastward across the Yucatan Peninsula, the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Heavy rain and increased winds and seas may result over portions
of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend into the
weekend. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge that extends from
western Atlantic across the northern Gulf will maintain moderate
to fresh southeast winds over the western and central basin
through Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
developing low pressure, clouds, and precipitation that are
accompanying the weather feature.

The surface pressure gradient, between high pressure to the
north of the area and lower pressure in Colombia, is supporting
moderate to fresh winds in much of the Caribbean Sea. An
exception is for the wind speeds that are locally strong in the
far western Caribbean Sea, due to a locally tighter pressure
gradient. The wave heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the
central Caribbean Sea, and they range from 4 feet to 6 feet
elsewhere.

A large and complex area of low pressure has developed near the
Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This
system is likely to become a tropical depression by Friday as it
moves northeastward across the Yucatan Peninsula, the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Heavy rain and increased winds and seas are possible late this
week in association with this system. Otherwise, generally
moderate to fresh trades will continue through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 79W from 24N to 30N. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from Hispaniola
and Cuba northward from 70W westward. Fresh easterly winds are
from 27N to 29N within 180 nm to the east of the surface trough.
Moderate wind speeds or slower are elsewhere from 70W westward.

A surface trough is along 28N53W 23N54W 17N56W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the surface
trough. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 70W
westward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is
from the surface trough westward.

A dissipating cold front passes through 31N12W, to the Canary
Islands, to 27N18W. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 21N
northward from 30W eastward.

A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 29N44W. A second 1019 mb
high pressure center is near 29N64W. Light to gentle winds are
near the high centers. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere
from 20N northward. Moderate to locally fresh winds are from 20N
southward. The wave heights range from: 2 feet to 3 feet from
26N northward from 60W westward; from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere
from 20N northward and from 35W westward; and from 4 feet to 6
feet from 20N southward.

A trough will shift northeast from the Bahamas during the next
few days. It will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to
most of the western part of the area through Fri. A tropical
depression is likely to form in the far northwestern Caribbean
Sea or southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Fri. It is expected to
track northeastward possibly crossing Florida or Cuba at the end
of the week and over the weekend, then move into the region.
This could bring heavy rain and increased winds and seas to
portions of the area this weekend and into early next week.
There remains high uncertainty with this potential tropical
system.

$$
MT/JA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net