[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010405
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Aug 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 21W, south of 20N,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection from 10N to 13N
and between 19W and 23W. The northern portion of the
wave is embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 39W, south of
21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
near the trough axis, mainly S of 10N. The northern portion of the
wave is embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 65W,
south of 16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A few showers are occurring
near the trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 80W, south
of 22N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen near the trough axis, N of 17N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N16W to 12N27W to 09N38W. The ITCZ extends from
09N40W to 04N51W. Scattered showers are evident on satellite
imagery near the monsoon trough axis between 23W and 36W. Similar
convection is also present from 06N to 10N and between 47W and
57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity over the Yucatan
peninsula has spilled into the Bay of Campeche, sending weakening
but fast-moving showers on a westward trajectory. Elsewhere in the
basin, divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture result in
scattered showers over a good portion of the northern and western
Gulf. Gentle moderate anticyclonic winds dominate the Gulf waters.
The exception are locally fresh winds in the SE Gulf, including
the Florida Straits, and off northern and western Yucatan. Seas
are 4-6 ft in the area of locally fresh winds, while 2-4 ft
prevail in the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the northern
Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas
across most of the Gulf through the middle of next week. Fresh E
winds will pulse during the evening hours through mid week west
of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between the 1025 mb subtropical high
positioned SW of Bermuda and lower pressures in northern South
America support fresh to locally near gale-force easterly trade
winds in the south-central. The strongest winds are found
offshore NW Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in these
waters are 8-11 ft. In the remainder of the central Caribbean,
fresh to strong trades and seas of 5-8 ft prevail. Fresh to
occasionally strong trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found in
the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to locally
fresh trades and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent. A few showers are
noted off NE Nicaragua, while the rest of the Caribbean enjoys
fairly tranquil weather conditions.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will
persist over the central Caribbean through mid-week, then will
diminish slightly. The eastern Caribbean will experience moderate
to fresh trades, while the northwest Caribbean can expect mainly
gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge continues to be the most prominent
feature across the tropical Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil
weather conditions. This is accentuated by large outbreak of dry
and dusty Saharan air that moves westward through the Atlantic
waters. The pressure gradient mentioned in the Caribbean Sea
section is also responsible for fresh to strong easterly winds S
of 24N and W of 66W, with the strongest winds occurring off
northern Hispaniola and the entrance of the Windward Passage, as
shown by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these
waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will prevail along 30N
through Tue, then will lift north of the area. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the
Windward Passage during the late afternoon and overnight hours
through Mon night. Fresh trades will prevail in the Old Bahama
Channel through Mon.

$$
Delgado
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