[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Aug 01 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 18W from
04N to 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate with
isolated strong convection is seen from 10N-13N between 17W-
22W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 38W from 02N
to 20N, moving westward at about 20 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are within 120 nm east of the wave and 60 nm west
of the wave from 07N to 09N.

A far eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 62W
from 04N to 20N, moving westward at about 25 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is mainly observed ahead of the wave from
11N-15N, between 57W-68W. ASCAT data from this afternoon
indicated strong to near gale force winds near the strongest
convection in the eastern Caribbean.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W south
of 21N. It is moving westward at 25 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms trail the wave from 15N to 17N between 72W-77W.

Associated convection is isolated and weak.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
19N16W to 12N28W to 10N35W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to
04N51W. Outside of convection associated to the tropical waves,
only isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 60-120 nm
of the trough, within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 40W-45W
and within 240 nm northwest of the ITCZ between 47W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Divergent flow aloft associated with an upper-level low centered
over the west-central Gulf is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the majority of the basin. Weak high
pressure extends across the northern Gulf, supporting a gentle to
moderate SE breeze outside of thunderstorms. Seas are generally
2-4 ft throughout the basin.

For the forecast, an upper-level low will move westward across
the western Gulf tonight, and will enhance scattered showers and
thunderstorms across much of the basin. Weak surface ridging
extending across the northern Gulf will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf through
the middle of next week. Fresh east winds will pulse during the
evening hours through the early part of the week west of the
Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
in the SW Caribbean is supporting a fresh easterly breeze
throughout the central and eastern Caribbean where seas are
generally 6-8 ft, with 7-9 ft in the southern Colombian basin and
Gulf of Darien. Conditions are more favorable in the northwestern
Caribbean, where easterly trade winds are moderate and seas are
3-5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the central
Caribbean will expand in areal coverage through tonight and Mon
along with building seas. Winds and seas will diminish by mid-
week. The eastern Caribbean will experience fresh trade winds,
while the northwest Caribbean can expect mainly moderate east
winds through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high pressure in the subtropical western Atlantic
centered near 30N69W is dominating the wind regime throughout and
generally the weather pattern. Winds are gentle north of 25N
with 3-5 ft seas, increasing to moderate easterlies south of 25N
with 4-6 ft seas. Fresh easterlies are observed from the the Old
Bahama Channel to the waters offshore Hispaniola, including the
northern terminus of the Windward Passage. Conditions are similar
in the central Atlantic with gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas
increasing to moderate northeast to east winds and 4-6 ft seas
south of 20-25N. In the eastern Atlantic, northeast winds are
generally moderate, except with fresh to strong northern winds
along the coast of Africa and near the Canary Islands. Seas are
4-6 ft in the area.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will remain along 30N
through Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola
and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late
afternoons and overnight hours through Mon night. Fresh trades
will prevail in the Old Bahama Channel through Mon.

$$
Aguirre
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