[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jul 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W from
04N to 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is
associated with this feature as it remains embedded in a rather
dense area of Saharan Air Layer dust.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W/48W from
05N to 21N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave from
from 09N to 14N.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 60W/61W
south of 22N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm west of the wave
from 13N to 17N. This wave is expected to lead to increasing
shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern Caribbean
tonight through late Sat.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and dips south-southwestward to 14N20W
and to 09N24W and to 08N35W. No significant convection is
observed at the present time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level diffluent pattern present to the east of a rather
large upper low that is centered over north- central Mexico is
supporting a scattered moderate convection over the western Gulf
from 20N to 26N and west of 94W to about 60 nm inland the coast
of Mexico. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are evident
elsewhere over the basin, primarily south of 26N. Otherwise,
weak surface high pressure ridging over the northern Gulf is
maintaining gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the weak surface high pressure ridging over
the northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas across most of the Gulf through the middle of next
week. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where fresh to
strong NE to E winds will pulse during the evening hours through
tonight due to a trough that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula
in the evenings and moves westward overnight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low gradually shifting westward toward the south-
central Gulf of Mexico is noted on water vapor imagery to be
just northwest of the western tip of Cuba. It is supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms that are north of 18N and
from Jamaica west to inland the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are also over the interior of Cuba.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the southern part of
the Windward Passage near 19N75W, and over the south-central and
southwestern sections of the basin. High pressure ridging north
of the area is maintaining moderate to locally fresh trade winds
across the eastern, central, and in the southwestern Caribbean
along with 4-6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate trade winds are over
the northwestern Caribbean, where seas are in the 3-5 ft range W
of 85W and 2-4 ft between 80W-85W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected across the area through Sun, except for pulsing
fresh to strong winds every evening over the waters off Colombia,
in the Gulf of Venezuela and just south of Hispaniola. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will build over the central Caribbean Sun
night through early next week in the wake of a tropical wave
that moving across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1032 mb high pressure center analyzed near 29N65W is an
extension of the subtropical ridge, and the Azores High north of
the area. The feature continues to influence the wind and
weather regime of the tropical Atlantic. Afternoon ASCAT data
passes show gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the
basin west of about 30W, with moderate to fresh northeast winds
east of 30W. Of note, fresh E winds were detected near the NE
coast of Cuba and on approaches to the Windward Passage. The
ridge-dominated pattern in recent weeks has allowed for seas to
calm to 3-6 ft across most of the tropical Atlantic, with lower
seas of 2-4 ft in the northwest section of these waters. Seas
are much higher, 6-10 ft east of 30W, where northeast trade winds
are present.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging along 29N
will change little through Mon, then shift slightly south Mon
night through Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north
of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage in
the late afternoons and during the overnight hours through early
next week.

$$
Aguirre
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