[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jul 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 19W, south of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt.
No deep convection is associated with this feature as it is
embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W, south of
20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
09N to 12N between 45W and 49W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 59W, south of
22N and moving W at 10-15 kt. The 1200 UTC Upper Air Sounding from
Barbados indicates the tropical wave is nearing the island, and
will likely pass through this afternoon and evening. No
significant convection is noted with the wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W to 09N24W to 07N37W. Scattered showers and
tstorms are along the western end of the Monsoon Trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper low centered over north-central Mexico is supporting a
scattered moderate convection over the western Gulf near Tampico,
from 18N to 24N west of 95W. Elsewhere, ridging across the Gulf
is maintaining gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and 2-4 ft
seas.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the
northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas across most of the Gulf through early next week. The
exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where fresh to strong NE to
E winds will pulse during the evening hours through tonight due
to a trough that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula in the
evenings and moves westward overnight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low over central Cuba is supporting showers and
tstorms from the Windward Passage to near Grand Cayman to off
western Cuba. Showers and tstorms are also noted in the South
Central Caribbean. Ridging north of the area is maintaining
moderate to locally fresh trades across the eastern, central, and
SW Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate trades are
evident over the northwest Caribbean, where seas are 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected across the area through Sun, except for pulsing
fresh to strong winds every evening over the waters off Colombia,
in the Gulf of Venezuela and just south of Hispaniola. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will build over the central Caribbean Sun
night through early next week following a tropical wave moving
across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1022 mb high pressure centered near 29N65W, an extension of the
subtropical ridge, and the Azores High centered north of the area
continue to dominate the tropical Atlantic. Recent scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the
basin west of 30W, with moderate to fresh NE winds east of 30W. Of
note, fresh E winds were detected near the NE coast of Cuba and
on approaches to the Windward Passage. The ridge-dominated pattern
in recent weeks has allowed for seas to calm to 3-6 ft across
most of the tropical Atlantic, lowest in NW sections of the
discussion waters. E of 30W, in the area of fresh NE winds, seas
are 6-10 ft in NE swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure ridge along 29N
will change little through Mon, then shift slightly south Mon
night through Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of
Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage in the
late afternoons and during the overnight hours through early next
week.

$$
Mahoney
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