[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280518
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jul 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning E of 35W: Recent scatterometer data continue
to show gale force winds in the AGADIR zone near the coast. Rough
seas of 8-11 ft are within this area of winds. Strong to near gale
force winds are also noted between the Canary Islands, with moderate
or rough seas. Moderate visibility due to sand and hazy conditions.
For more information, please see the High Seas Forecast issued by
Meteo-France at the website:
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 32W/33W and S of 21N, moving W
at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
near the southern portion of the wave axis, from 04N to 11N between
30W and 35W.

Another tropical wave has its axis along 47W/48W and S of 21N,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A trough is N of the wave and extends
from 27N47W to 22N48W. Some shower activity is near the trough
while isolated showers are near the wave axis. This wave is
embedded in the dry and dusty Saharan airmass, which is inhibiting
significant convection at this time. Computer model shows moisture
associated with this tropical wave reaching the Leeward Islands
on Fri.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea Bissau near 11.5N16W then continues to 09N32W to 07N41W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to the coast of Guyana near 06N58W.
Convection is limited.

The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon trough reaches the SW
Caribbean Sea through the border of Costa Rica and Panama to
northern Colombia, where a 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted over northern
Colombia. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
over parts of Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf waters. A
surface trough, reflexion of a low to middle level disturbance,
is analyzed over the eastern Gulf and extends from 28N85W to 25N88W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are associated with
this trough. Similar convective activity is observed over the
northern Yucatan peninsula and over the SE Gulf, including the
Yucatan Channel. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly gentle
to moderate E to SE winds prevail with seas of 2-4 ft based on a
pair of altimeter passes. Fresh easterly winds are noted per
scatterometer data near and to the W of Yucatan peninsula.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue over the area allowing for
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas to prevail through the
forecast period. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where
fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse each night over the next
few days due to the typical diurnal trough that develops over the
Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward. The aforementioned surface
trough will continue to enhance convection over the eastern Gulf
today.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Saharan Air Layer tracking product from CIMSS and the GOES-16
RGB dust imagery confirm the presence of African dust across much
of the Caribbean Sea. However, patches of low level moisture,
with possible showers, are seen over much of the Lesser Antilles
in association with a weak low level trough. Some convective
activity is noted over Haiti, eastern Cuba and regional waters,
and near eastern Jamaica likely related to an upper-level low
spinning just N of Hispaniola. Recent scatterometer data provide
observations of moderate to locally fresh trades over the eastern
and central Caribbean, while gentle winds prevail in the NW
Caribbean, except in the lee of eastern Cuba where fresh NE winds
are noted. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin, with the exception of
5-7 ft in the south-central Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected across the Caribbean through the rest of the
week, except briefly increasing to fresh to strong across the
south-central Caribbean, and N of Honduras at night through Thu
night. Pulsing fresh to strong winds will develop across the
central Caribbean by this weekend. The surface trough currently
over the Windward Islands will move W across the eastern Caribbean
through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the
Gale Warning E of 35W issued by Meteo-France.

The tropical Atlantic is dominated by the Bermuda-Azores High
centered near 37N34W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
prevails over the forecast waters, per recent scatterometer data
with seas of 4-6 ft based on altimeter data and buoy observations.
African dust reaches the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula, and
mostly fair weather is expected. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are affecting the SE Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands due to
an upper-level low located just N of Hispaniola.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure along 30N will change
little through the next few days. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse N of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward
Passage in the late afternoons and during the overnight hours into
early next week.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
GR
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