[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272330
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jul 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2310 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning
for the AGADIR zone, effective through 28/0000 UTC. N winds will
gust to gale force mainly near the coast. Seas are 7-9 ft in N
swell. Additionally, locally moderate visibility is possible due
to sand haze. For more information, please see the High Seas
Forecast issued by Meteo-France at the website:
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W/32W and
S of 27N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
near the southern portion of the wave axis, from 04.5N to 12N
between 24W and 37W. Fresh NE to E winds are noted near the wave
axis N of 20N per morning scatterometer data. A strong Saharan
Air Layer dominates the area N of 14N and west of the wave axis to
42W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 46W and S of
23N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A trough axis continues from 23N to
27N along 45W-46W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen
within 90 nm behind the trough. This wave is embedded in the dry
and dusty Saharan airmass, which is inhibiting significant
convection at this time. Fresh NE to E winds are noted N of 20N
near the wave axis per morning scatterometer data.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W to 10.5N22W to 08N46W. The ITCZ extends from
08.5N48W to 09.5N52W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W.
Scattered showers and moderate thunderstorms are noted near both
boundaries.

The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon trough reaches the SW
Caribbean Sea through the border of Costa Rica and Panama to
northern Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
60 nm of the coast of Panama and northwest Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Atlantic subtropical ridge extends from near Bermuda southwestward
into the northern Gulf waters, maintaining gentle to moderate
ESE to SE winds. Seas of 2-4 ft prevail. Strong convection is
moving NW off of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and into the
adjacent Gulf waters. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection continues across the NE Gulf waters, associated with a
low to middle level disturbance shifting WNW.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface ridging will
continue over the area allowing for gentle to moderate winds and
gentle seas to prevail through the forecast period. The exception
will be the Bay of Campeche, where fresh to strong easterly winds
will pulse each night over the next few days due to the typical
diurnal trough that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves
westward. A surface trough extending from 29N85W to 26N90W will be
attendant by scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight through
Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong Saharan Air Layer, evident on several Upper Air
Soundings across the Caribbean, continues to provide generally
tranquil conditions across the Caribbean to the east of 83W.
However, patches of low level moisture may support some showers
tonight, especially as a weak low level trough moves across the
Windward Islands tonight. Trades are moderate in the eastern and
central Caribbean, and gentle in the W Caribbean. Scatterometer
indicated trades are locally fresh in the south- central
Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Seas are 4-6 ft in the
eastern, central, and SW Caribbean, except to 7 ft offshore of
Colombia, diminishing to 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected across the basin through the rest of the week,
except briefly increasing to fresh to strong across the south
central Caribbean and N of Honduras tonight. Pulsing fresh to
strong winds will develop across the central Caribbean by this
weekend. A low-level trough just east of the Windward Islands is
accompanied by scattered showers and a few thunderstorms and will
cross those islands early this evening, and move into the far
eastern Carribbean during overnight hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on an East
Atlantic Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France.

The tropical Atlantic is dominated by the Bermuda-Azores high
centered north of the area. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
prevails over the discussion waters, per morning scatterometer
data. Saharan Air and fair weather prevail W of 60W and have
moved into the Florida Peninsula today. The exception in winds is
near the aforementioned tropical waves, where winds are locally
fresh. Also, near the Canary Islands, NE winds are fresh to
strong. Seas are 4-6 ft across the basin, except locally 8-9 ft
north of 20N and east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure along 30N will change
little through the next few days. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse N of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward
Passage in the late afternoons and during the overnight hours into
early next week.

$$
Stripling
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