[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jul 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis along 33W, from
20N southward, moving westward from 10 to 15 kt. Any nearby
precipitation is related to the interaction of the wave with the
monsoon trough.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along
65W, from 20N southward, moving westward about 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered showers are noted across the northern portion of the
wave mainly N of 15N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 86W,
from 20N southward, moving westward 10 kt. Scattered showers are
noted along the wave's axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Mauritania near 18N16W to 09N44W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 90 nm on either side of the boundary and E of 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Light to gentle winds,
and sea heights that range from 1 foot to 3 feet, are in the
north central and central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle
to moderate ESE to SSE winds, and sea heights that range from 2
feet to 4 feet are in the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue dominating the
basin, allowing gentle to moderate winds and gentle seas to
prevail through the forecast period. The exception will be the Bay
of Campeche, where fresh easterly winds will pulse each night
over the next few days due to a diurnal trough developing over the
Yucatan Peninsula and moving west.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
waves moving across the basin.

An easterly trade wind pattern spans the entire basin. Moderate
to locally fresh trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4
feet to 7 ft, are in the central sections, and in the waters that
are to the south of Cuba. Gentle to moderate trade winds, and sea
heights that range from 3 to 5 ft cover the remainder of the
basin.

The monsoon trough extends along along 10N, between 74W in
Colombia, and beyond Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along and S of the trough.


For the forecast, the pressure gradient in the central Caribbean
will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong east winds
through Tue, then moderate to fresh winds will prevail through the
forecast period. Moderate to fresh winds and gentle to moderate
seas are expected elsewhere through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

A surface trough is along 73W from 21N to 28N. Scattered showers
prevail within 60 nm on either side of the trough. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward. A surface ridge is
to the north of the area. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near
34N58W. The combined Bermuda and Azores high pressure centers are
supporting light to gentle winds and sea heights that range from
4 to 6 ft, from 26N northward between 40W and the Georgia/northern
Florida coast. Moderate to fresh NE trade winds and sea heights
that range from 5 to 7 ft are from 12N to 26N between 30W and the
Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate NE trade winds and sea
heights that range from 4 feet to 5 feet are near the Canary
Islands and the Cabo Verde Islands from 22N northward between the
northwest African coast 38W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and
southerly winds and sea heights that range from 4 to 6 ft prevail
across the remainder of the basin.

Looking ahead, the subtropical ridge will sustain pulsing fresh
to strong easterly winds N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the
Windward and Mona Passages at nighttime. The surface trough
currently located NW of Hispaniola, will continue to move westward
across the region, reaching the central Bahamas today, and
approaching South Florida on Tue. An increase in winds and seas is
expected with the trough.

$$
ERA
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