[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jul 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W, from 20N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: any nearby precipitation also is near the monsoon
trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W, from 20N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 270
nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 180 nm to the
west of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 knots. An upper level trough passes from the
NW Bahamas into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the
northwest of the line that runs from Hispaniola to the SE coast
of Nicaragua.

A tropical wave is along 95W, passing through parts of the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico and through the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, from 20N southward, moving
westward from 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N southward, the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Isolated moderate
also is in the coastal plains and the coastal waters of Mexico
from 23N southward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Mauritania near 18N16W, to 12N30W and 09N46W.  Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 300 nm to 600 nm
to the south of the monsoon trough. Isolated moderate is within
400 nm to the north of the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the Florida
Panhandle. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NE corner
of the Gulf of Mexico, and inland to Alabama and Georgia.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N
northward from 90W eastward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is from 26N southward from
85W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of
the Gulf of Mexico. This cyclonic wind flow is related to the
inland Mexico 26N101W cyclonic circulation center.

A surface ridge passes from a South Carolina 1020 mb high
pressure center, to the southwestern corner of the Gulf of
Mexico near 21N97W.

Light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to
3 feet, are in the north central and central sections of the
Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate ESE to SSE winds, and sea
heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet are in the remainder of
the Gulf.

Weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico, allowing gentle
to moderate winds and gentle seas to prevail. Similar conditions
are expected through the forecast period. The exception will
remain near and to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula, where
fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into
the early morning hours over the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 knots. An upper level trough passes from the
NW Bahamas into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the
northwest of the line that runs from Hispaniola to the SE coast
of Nicaragua.

A surface trough is along 72W from 20N to 25N in the Atlantic
Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 20N to 27N between 70W and 77W.

An easterly trade wind pattern spans the entire basin. Moderate
to locally fresh trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4
feet to 7 feet, are in the central sections, and in the waters
that are to the south of Cuba. Gentle to moderate trade winds,
and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, cover the
remainder of the basin.

The monsoon trough is along 10N, between 74W in Colombia, and
beyond Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to
the south of the monsoon trough from Colombia westward.

A pressure gradient in the central Caribbean Sea will support
pulsing fresh to strong east winds through Tue, then moderate to
fresh winds will prevail through the forecast period. Moderate
to fresh winds and gentle to moderate seas are expected
elsewhere through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the Florida
Panhandle. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NE corner
of the Gulf of Mexico, and inland to Alabama and Georgia, and
the Atlantic Ocean from 77W westward. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are in the
area of upper level cyclonic wind flow.

A surface trough is along 72W from 20N to 25N in the Atlantic
Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 20N to 27N between 70W and 77W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward. A
surface ridge is to the north of the area. A 1024 mb high
pressure center is near 33N37W. A 1027 mb high pressure center
is near 34N59W.

The combined Bermuda and Azores high pressure centers are
supporting light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range
from 4 feet to 6 feet, from 26N northward between 38W and the
Georgia/northern Florida coast. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE
trade winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 8 feet,
are from 12N to 26N between 30W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles.
Gentle to moderate NNE to NE trade winds, and sea heights that
range from 4 feet to 5 feet, are near the Canary Islands and the
Cabo Verde Islands from 22N northward between the northwest
African coast 38W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southerly
winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in
the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

The subtropical ridge will sustain pulsing fresh to strong
easterly winds N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the
Windward and Mona Passages during the night hours. A surface
trough, currently located NW of Hispaniola, will continue to
move westward across the region tonight, reaching the central
Bahamas on Mon, and approaching South Florida on Tue. Some
increase in winds and seas is expected with the trough.

$$
MT/ERA
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