[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241057
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jul 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 20N with axis near 26W,
moving westward at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 05N to 12N between 17W and 22W, and from 03N
to 14N between 25W and 34W.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 19N with axis near 52W,
moving westward at 10-15 knots. There is no convection associated
with this wave as it continues to be embedded in the dry
environment of the Saharan Air Layer.

A tropical wave extends S of 19N with axis near 84W, moving
westward at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is across
Cuba, Jamaica and the Yucatan channel offshore waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 16N16W to 10N30W to 08N40W. Aside
from the convection associated with the tropical wave west of the
Cape Verde Islands, scattered moderate convection is from 05N to
17N between 08W and 20W, from 15N to 19N between 21W and 25W, and
from 01N to 08N between 39W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Atlantic Bermuda-Azores High continues to extend a ridge SW
across Florida into the western Gulf, which is providing light to
gentle variable winds across the central basin, and gentle to
moderate E to SE winds in the far SE and W gulf. Seas are up to 3
ft basin-wide.

For the forecast, model guidance indicate the aforementioned
pattern and conditions will continue through mid-week, except for
the Yucatan peninsula adjacent waters where a thermal trough will
induce fresh NE to E winds during the late afternoon and night
hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Bermuda-Azores High located N of the area combined with lower
pressure in the region between Colombia and Panama continue to
support fresh to locally strong winds and seas to 8 ft in
portions of the SW Caribbean, and moderate to fresh trade winds
elsewhere. A tropical wave moving across Central America supports
scattered heavy showers and tstms in the NW Caribbean offshore
waters N of 17N.

For the forecast, a strong Atlantic ridge against lower pressure
in the SW Caribbean will sustain fresh to strong winds in the
south-central basin through early this morning, and then moderate
to fresh winds will prevail through mid-week. Otherwise, moderate
to fresh winds and slight to moderate seas are expected in the
Gulf of Honduras much of the forecast period while moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas are forecast just E of the Leeward
Islands through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging associated with the Bermuda-Azores High continue
to be the dominant feature in the subtropical Atlantic waters.
This is supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 27N in
the SW N Atlantic waters and across the central Atlantic along
with moderate seas. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE winds are
over the eastern subtropical Atlantic waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will continue
to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the forecast
period, leading to fresh to strong easterly winds north of
Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage during the
night hours. A surface trough, currently located just N of Puerto
Rico, will continue to move westward across the region today,
likely reaching the central Bahamas on Mon, and approaching South
Florida on Tue. Some increase in winds and seas are expected in
the wake of the trough.

$$
Ramos
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