[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jul 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W, from 21N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 08N
to 19N between 19W and 27W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W, from 19N
southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm to the west
of the tropical wave from 12N to 16N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. The tropical wave is moving
through an area of upper level anticyclonic wind flow that is in
the western Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from Haiti westward.

A tropical wave is inland along 92W in the easternmost sections
of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, from 19N
southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 12N to 19N between 87W and 93W, including in Central
America and in the surrounding coastal waters of the eastern
Pacific Ocean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the SW coastal areas of
Mauritania near 17N16W, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is
near 15N22W, 12N30W 10N41W. The ITCZ continues from 10N41W to
07N50W.  Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within
400 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, inland, between 09W
and 14W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
300 nm to 400 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between
27W and 45W. Isolated moderate is within 300 nm to the north of
the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes from a 30N74W Atlantic Ocean upper
level cyclonic circulation center, to the central sections of
the Florida west coast, to a Gulf of Mexico 25N95W upper level
cyclonic circulation center. An outflow boundary is about 90 nm
to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 25N northward from 90W
eastward, and from 25N southward from 86W westward.

A surface ridge passes through north central Florida, into the
west central Gulf of Mexico, to the southwestern corner of the
Gulf of Mexico.

Light to gentle anticyclonic winds, and sea heights that range
from 1 foot to 3 feet, cover much of the Gulf of Mexico.
Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds, and sea heights that
range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are in the SE Gulf, including the
Florida Straits, and to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

A surface ridge extends westward across Florida into the Gulf of
Mexico, from the Bermuda-Azores high pressure center. Mainly
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail. The
exception will be near and to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula
where fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early
morning hours through the middle of the next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is surrounded by
comparatively drier air in subsidence, covers the area from
Haiti eastward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the
remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The broad subtropical ridge that is to the north of the
Caribbean Sea, and lower pressures in northern South America,
support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and sea heights
that range from 7 feet to 9 feet in the south central sections
and in parts of the SW Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds are
in the Windward Passage. Fresh to locally strong winds are in
the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds cover the rest of
the area, particularly in the lee of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.
The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the NW and
eastern Caribbean Sea, and they range from 4 feet to 6 feet of
the central and SW Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 74W in Colombia,
and beyond southern Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 360 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from Colombia
westward.

A strong Atlantic Ocean ridge against lower pressure in the SW
Caribbean Sea will sustain fresh to strong winds in the south
central part of the basin through early Sun, then moderate to
fresh winds will prevail through mid-week. Otherwise, moderate
to fresh winds and slight to moderate seas are expected in the
Gulf of Honduras much of the forecast period while moderate to
fresh trade winds and moderate seas are forecast just E of the
Leeward Islands through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes from a 30N74W Atlantic Ocean upper
level cyclonic circulation center, beyon the central sections of
the Florida west coast. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 25N northward from 70W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward. A
surface ridge is along a 1027 mb high pressure center that is
near 33N58W, to 33N68W, beyond the NE corner of the Gulf of
Mexico.

A surface trough is along 63W/64W from 20N to 25N.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360
nm to the east of the surface trough, and within 510 nm to the
west of the surface trough.

Light to gentle winds are from 27N northward between 40W and
81W, and from 13N southward from 54W eastward. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 8
feet, cover the rest of the waters. The comparatively highest
sea heights are from 21N to 26N between 36W and 41W.

The Bermuda-Azores High will continue to dominate the Atlantic
Ocean forecast waters through the forecast period, leading to
fresh to strong easterly winds north of Hispaniola and the
approaches to the Windward Passage during the night hours. A
surface trough, currently located just NE of Puerto Rico, will
continue to move westward across the region tonight, likely
reaching the central Bahamas on Mon, and approaching South
Florida on Tue. Some increase in winds and seas are expected in
the wake of the trough.

$$
mt
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