[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jul 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 21W from just northeast
of the Cabo Verde Islands at 20N southward, and moving W near 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N
between 20W and 26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W from 20N southward,
and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring
from 11N to 13N between 40W and 50W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W from south of Haiti
at 17N southward to northern Colombia, and moving W near 15 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near the
Panama-Colombia border, northwestern Venezuela and nearby waters.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from east of Cozumel
Island southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East
Pacific Ocean, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are present in the Gulf of Honduras and
near the east Nicaragua coast.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of
Mauritania near Nouakchott across 12N25W to 06N33W. Scattered
showers are found north of the trough over the Cabo Verde Islands
from 12N to 18N between 20W and 26W. Similar conditions are also
noted to the south from 07N to 12N between the Guinea-Sierra Leone
coast and 20W, and to the southwest from 05N to 07N between 26W
and 32W. An ITCZ extends from 06N32W across 04N37W to 04N44W,
then from 06N47W to near the Guyana-Suriname border at 06N57W.
Scattered showers are seen up to 80 nm along either side of both
ITCZ segments.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is coupling with divergent flow aloft to trigger
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Otherwise, a surface ridge extending west-southwestward
from central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico continues to dominate
much of the Gulf. Moderate NE to E winds with 3 to 4 ft seas are
present offshore from the northern Yucatan Peninsula and eastern
Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 1 to
3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf region into the weekend. Under this weather pattern, gentle
to moderate winds will prevail, except near and to the NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will
pulse each night into the early morning hours due to local
effects.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Bermuda and Azores Highs continue to channel NE to ENE trades
across the entire Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Haiti and
waters between southeastern Cuba and Jamaica. Refer to the
Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the Caribbean
Basin. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are
impacting the south-central basin, just north of Colombia. Gentle
easterly winds with seas at 2 to 5 ft exist for the northwestern
basin near the Island of the Youth, and along the coast of Panama.
Moderate to fresh E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail for the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda/Azores
Highs and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through the
weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are
expected across the waters near the Lesser Antilles through late
this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
weather in the Atlantic Basin. The Bermuda/Azores Highs continue
to provide light to gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas north of 24N
between 35W and 70W. Farther west, gentle to moderate SE winds and
seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident north of 24N between 70W and the
Georgia/Florida coast. To the south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE
trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen from 10N to 24N between 32W
and the Lesser Antilles/70W. For the eastern Atlantic, moderate
to fresh with locally strong NNE trades and 7 to 10 ft seas are
found north of 13N between the African coast and 35W, including
waters near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. South of 13N,
gentle to moderate with locally fresh monsoonal winds and sea at 5
to 8 ft are noted between the central African coast and 28W.
Light to gentle with locally moderate E to SE trades and seas of 4
to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge associated with
the Bermuda/Azores Highs will continue to dominate the forecast
area over the next several days. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and tropical waves moving across the Caribbean will
support pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds during the nights
just off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the approaches
to the Windward Passage into Wed. As the high moves east a bit
tonight, fresh to locally strong SW winds will develop offshore
northern Florida through Tue afternoon.

$$

Chan
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net