[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jul 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2340 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 20N with axis near 20W, moving
W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 05N to 15N between 13W and 25W.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 20N with axis near 41W,
moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection is associated with this wave.

A tropical wave extends S of 18N with axis near 72W, moving W at
15-20 kt. Scattered to isolated showers are in the NW Colombia and
Gulf of Venezuela offshore waters.

A tropical wave extends S of 18N with axis near 84W, moving W at
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring inland
and in the Gulf of Honduras as well as across northern Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of
Mauritania from 19N16W to 10N27W to 07N32W. The ITCZ extends from
07N32W to 06N41W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 06N44W
to 07N58W. For information on convection, see the tropical waves
section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The main feature across the basin continue to be a weak surface
ridge that is providing light to gentle variable winds basin-wide,
except along the northern gulf coastal waters where moderate
southerlies are being reported. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
are also in the vicinity of the Yucatan peninsula associated with
a surface trough that is generating scattered heavy showers
inland. Seas continue to be in the 1-2 ft range basin-wide.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the
Gulf region this week. Under this weather pattern, gentle to
moderate winds will prevail, except near and to the NW of the
Yucatan peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse
each night into the early morning hours due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong surface ridge continues in place N of the area extending
to the northern Caribbean, which is supporting moderate to fresh
winds in the eastern and northwest basin. In the central basin,
the passage of a tropical wave and a low pressure embedded in the
E Pacific monsoon trough tighten the pressure gradient in that
region and support fresh to strong winds also extending across the
Windward passage. Seas in the central and southwest Caribbean
range between 8 to 10 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the basin and the passage of the tropical waves will
continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south-central
Caribbean through mid-week. Moderate to fresh trade winds and
moderate seas are expected across the waters near the Lesser
Antilles through the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda/Azores high continue to dominate the southwest,
central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters, which continue to
support moderate east winds S of 25N in the central and western
portions of the basin where seas range between 5 to 6 ft. In the
eastern subtropical Atlantic, a tighter pressure gradient against
lower pressure across northern Africa, continue to support fresh
to strong NE winds N of 14N and E of 33W with seas to 10 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
dominate the forecast region over the next several days. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and tropical waves moving
across the Caribbean will support pulsing fresh to strong easterly
winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the
approaches to the Windward Passage, tonight and Tue night.
Otherwise, the ridge will slightly move eastward tonight and
fresh SW winds will develop offshore Florida, north of the Bahamas
through Tue afternoon.

$$
Ramos
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