[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181638
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jul 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1620 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave near the African coast extends
along 18/19W, from 06N to 20N, and moving W at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N
between 13W and 23W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W from 20N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Convection associated with this wave has
dissipated this morning.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from 17N southward
into western Venezuela, and moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 69W and 73W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W from 19N across the
Panama and Costa Rica border into the east Pacific Ocean, moving
W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is occurring within 180 nm either side of the wave
axis, including over portions of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa
Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of
Mauritania from 19N16W to 12N23W to 08N35W. The ITCZ extends from
08N35W to 07N39W, then continues W of the central Atlantic
tropical wave from 06N43W to 08N59W. Scattered showers are noted N
of the ITCZ between 55W and 59W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough axis extends from the Alabama coast
southwestward to near Tampico, Mexico, enhancing isolated showers
and thunderstorms over the NE Gulf. Broad surface ridging is
supporting gentle winds across the entire basin, with seas of 1-3
ft.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf region this week. Under this weather pattern, gentle to
moderate winds will prevail, except near and to the NW of the
Yucatan peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse
each night into the early morning hours due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Apart from the convection associated with the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection from 09N to 12N between 74W and 79W
is related to the east Pacific monsoon trough. A recent ASCAT pass
shows fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean Sea, where
seas are likely 7-10 ft. Buoys over the eastern Caribbean are
reporting fresh trade winds with 5-7 ft seas. Moderate E winds
are prevalent over the NW Caribbean, where seas are likely 2-5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the basin and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue
to support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean
through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant moisture and upper-level divergence are enhancing
scattered showers and isolated t-storms north of 29.5N between
68W-80W. No significant precipitation areas are noted elsewhere
north of 15N. The Bermuda-Azores High is supporting gentle winds
and seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 25N between 25W and 70W. Moderate
S winds and 4-6 ft seas are present west of 70W north of 25N.
Fresh trades are noted off the N coast of Hispaniola and in the
Old Bahama Channel. Farther east, mainly fresh to locally strong
NNE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are evident north of 16N between the
African coast and 25W. In the tropical Atlantic, fresh trades
prevail from the ITCZ to 22N between 40W-60W, with 5-6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
dominate the forecast region over the next several days. The
pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the ridge and
tropical waves moving across the Caribbean will support pulsing
fresh to strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern
Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, tonight
and Tue night. As the high moves east a bit tonight, fresh SW
winds will develop offshore Florida, north of the Bahamas.
Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected
across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles through the forecast
period.

$$
Hagen/Colon-Burgos
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