[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jul 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave has emerged off the African coast
overnight from 05N to 20N. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 12N E of 20W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 20N southward,
and moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04N to 10N between 38W and 44W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from south of the
Mona Passage into western Venezuela, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the Venezuelan coast.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from the Cayman
Islands across western Panama into the East Pacific Ocean, moving
W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the
coast of Panama.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88W, from just offshore
the Yucatan Peninsula and over the Gulf of Honduras, southward
across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East Pacific Ocean, moving
W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the
western Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of
Mauritania near Nouakchott across 13N22W to 10N30W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 20W and 27W.
An ITCZ continues from 10N30W to 07N38W, then from 06N41W to
southeast of the French Guiana-Brazil border at 03N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 32W and 38W,
and from 02N to 06N between 44W and 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends from the Central Atlantic southward into
the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico, with a weak surface trough
from near the mouth of the Mississippi River to 25N90W. No
convection is associated with the trough nor elsewhere in the
Gulf. With weak pressure gradient in place, mainly gentle
southerly winds and seas of less than 2 ft dominate. The exception
is the eastern Bay of Campeche where moderate E winds and seas of
2 to 4 ft exist.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region
this week. Under this weather pattern, mainly gentle to moderate
winds will prevail, except near and to the NW of the Yucatan
peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each
night into the early morning hours due to local effects.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the
Caribbean Sea. Pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and
lower pressure over northern Colombia is sustaining a trade-wind
pattern over the entire Caribbean Basin. Enhanced by the presence
of tropical waves, Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 7 to 9
ft are evident across the central basin. Gentle to moderate E to
ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are found at the northwestern basin.
Mostly fresh E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail for the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will prolong fresh to
strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through mid-week.
Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected
across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convection previously in the vicinity of Cuba, the NW Bahamas, and
E of Florida has dissipated overnight. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for remaining convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

The Bermuda and Azores Highs are supporting light to gentle winds
and seas at 3 to 4 ft north of 25N between 25W and 70W. The highs
have shifted some E and weakened a bit overnight, allowing
moderate southerly flow to develop W of 70W.

Farther east, mainly fresh NNE winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are
evident north of 16N between the African coast and 25W. To the
south, mainly moderate NE trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are seen
from 09N to 25N between 25W and the southwest Bahamas/Lesser
Antilles. Gentle to moderate SW to NW winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft
prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
dominate the forecast region over the next several days. The
pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the ridge and
tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea will support fresh
to locally strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage,
through Tue. Some fresh SW winds will develop offshore Florida,
north of the Bahamas.

$$
Konarik
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