[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jul 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 19N southward,
and moving west at 20 to 25 knots. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 07N to 09N between 36W and 39W. Latest satellite
scatterometer and altimeter data reveal locally moderate to fresh
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas near this convection.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 59W from 17N southward
across Barbados into Guyana, and moving westward at 15 to 20
knots. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
present near Trinidad and Tobago, and over northern Guyana.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from near the
Haiti-Dominican Republic border southward to northwestern
Venezuela, and moving westward near 15 knots. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are occurring just south of Hispaniola
and near the Colombia-Venezuela border.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W from near the Cayman
Islands southward across central Panama into the East Pacific
Ocean, and moving westward near 15 knots. Scattered heavy showers
and thunderstorms are noted near the Panama-Colombia border.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough passes through the Senegal coast near Dakar
across 13N20W to 10N28W. Scattered showers are evident south of
the trough from 07N to 10N between the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast
and 24W. An ITCZ continues from 10N28W to 09N35W, then from
08N38W to 09N54W. Scattered moderate convection is found up to 90
nm along either side of both ITCZ segments.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough stretching southwestward from the Florida
Panhandle to the central Gulf is supporting scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms near New Orleans and over northern Florida.
A surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms over the
northeastern and east-central Gulf. Otherwise, a modest 1015 mb
high over the north-central Gulf and its associated surface ridge
are dominating much of the region with gentle to moderate
easterly winds and 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high and related ridge will
continue to dominate the region through early next week. Under
this weather pattern, mainly gentle to moderate winds will
prevail, except near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula where
moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the
early morning hours due to local effects.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the
Caribbean Sea. Tightening gradient between the Atlantic ridge
related to the Azores High and the Colombian Low is sustaining
ENE to ESE trade winds across the entire Caribbean Sea. Fresh to
strong winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are present at the south-central
basin, just north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds with seas
at 4 to 6 ft are noted over the southwestern basin, while gentle
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist for the northwestern basin.
Mostly fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the rest of the
Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the south-central
Caribbean will persist into the middle of next week. Fresh trade
winds and moderate seas are expected across the waters E of the
Lesser Antilles into Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A persistent upper-level low over the Great Bahama Bank continues
to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms from the north
shore of western Cuba northward across the central/northwest
Bahamas to the offshore waters of Florida. At the central
Atlantic, a surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms
southeast of Bermuda. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic
Basin.

The Bermuda and Azores Highs together, continue to provide light
to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north of 26N between 27W and
67W. Farther west and south, gentle to moderate E to SE winds with
seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident from the Greater Antilles northward
to 31N between 67W and the Georgia/Florida coast; while gentle to
moderate ENE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist from 09N to 26N
between 30W and the Lesser Antilles/67W. Gentle to moderate with
locally fresh NNE to NE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are found near
the Canary Islands north of 20N between the northwest African
coast and 27W. Outside the convection near the tropical wave,
light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge associated with
both the Bermuda and Azores Highs will continue to dominate the
forecast region during the next several days. The pressure
gradient between the southern periphery of the ridge and tropical
waves moving across the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to
locally strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern
Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, into Mon
night.

$$

Chan
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