[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jul 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 03N to 19N with axis near 34W, moving
westward about 15 knots. Massive dry air from the Saharan Air
Layer is limiting the convection to the ITCZ/monsoon trough region
where scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between 28W
and 38W.

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 18N with axis near 58W,
moving westward about 15 knots. Scattered showers are from 10N to
18N between 55W and 63W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean S of 20N with axis
near 70W, moving westward about 15 knots. Moderate to strong wind
shear over the central Caribbean is limiting convection to the
island of Hispaniola where scattered to isolated showers are
noted.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean S of 20N with axis
near 78W, moving westward about 15 knots. Heavy showers are noted
along central and eastern Cuba and Jamaica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 09N20W to 08N33W 07N37W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N37W to 08N50W. Aside from the convection
asociated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection
is from 07N to 11N between 13W and 19W, and from 05N to 10N
between 40W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level trough is supporting scattered showers
across the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico while a surface
trough crossing the state of Louisiana support similar shower
activity across portions of the north-central Gulf offshore
waters. Weak pressure gradient in the region is providing light to
gentle variable winds across the basin, except in the Bay of
Campeche where moderate to locally fresh NE winds are being
supported by a surface trough coming off the Yucatan peninsula.
Seas range between 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
region into early next week. Under this weather pattern, mainly
gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except near and to the NW
of the Yucatan peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds
will pulse each night into the early morning hours due to local
effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean this evening,
one is in the central basin and the second one over the western
basin. None of these waves are generating significant convection
over the region, except for inland Cuba and Hispaniola. A third
wave is just E of the Lesser Antilles and is generating scattered
showers mainly across the Windward Islands and portions of the SE
Caribbean. A strong Azores high continues to extend a ridge to the
northern Caribbean, which is maintaining mainly fresh winds in
the central and eastern basin, except for fresh to strong in the
south-central Caribbean. Seas in these portions of the basin range
between 5-6 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the basin and the Colombian/Panamanian low will lead to
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through early
next week. Fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected
across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles during the next several
days. The aerial extent of the trades will increase across the
Caribbean waters early on Sun as high pressure N of the area
strengthens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers prevail across the far SW N Atlantic waters W of
73W being supported by a middle to upper level trough. The
remainder subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of the
Azores high, which extends a ridge across the entire region.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
dominate the forecast region during the next several days. The
pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the ridge and
tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea will support fresh
to locally strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage,
through Mon.

$$
Ramos
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