[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120502
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jul 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 23/24W from 18N
southward through the Cabo Verde Islands to 04N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
within 330 nm W and within 210 nm E of the wave axis from 05.5N to
12N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 46/47W from 06N-
20N, moving W at 15 kt. Dry Saharan air is preventing any
convection north of 08N, but scattered moderate convection is
noted near the wave axis south of 08N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 74W from 17N
southward to central Colombia, moving W at 15-20 kt. No
significant convection is noted at this time with this feature.

The western Caribbean tropical wave has moved inland over Central
America. It extends along 89W from 19N southward to the east
Pacific Ocean, moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated
strong convection is observed over western Honduras, eastern
Guatemala and El Salvador.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of The Gambia near
12N17W to 09N24W to 11N31W to 07N45W. The ITCZ extends from
07N49W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Aside from the
convection mentioned above, scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 13N between 13W and 19W, and from 05N to 11N
between 35W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough near southeastern Louisiana is inducing
scattered showers and isolated tstorms over the north-central
Gulf. A weak ridge oriented east-west along 24/25N continues to
dominate the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico, supporting gentle
to moderate S-SW winds across the north-central and northeast
Gulf. ASCAT shows gentle to moderate east winds over the south-
central Gulf. Recent buoy and platform observations are reporting
fresh S winds over the far western Gulf, west of 96W. Seas are 2
to 3 ft across the basin, with locally 4 ft seas possible in the
fresh winds over the far western Gulf.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure over the central Gulf E
of 90W will begin to shift northward on Wed. The weak surface
trough near southeastern Louisiana is expected to linger in the
vicinity of the north-central Gulf through Fri. Instability
created by this feature along with that of a nearby upper-level
trough should allow for very active weather impacting most of the
central and NE Gulf waters through the rest of the week. Low
pressure may develop from the surface trough later in the week,
and this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
during the next 48 hours. Light to gentle winds are expected
across the Gulf on Fri, except near the surface trough and over
the eastern Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a
thermal trough coming off the Yucatan peninsula at night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large upper-level low is centered near Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands. However, a large outbreak of dry Saharan air is
covering the eastern half of the Caribbean, limiting showers east
of 76W. The only area of showers east of 76W is noted in the
southeastern Caribbean, south of 14N and east of 66W, where broken
clouds with isolated showers are present. Farther west, isolated
showers and tstorms are noted over the NW Caribbean near the
Cayman Islands and south of Cuba, enhanced by an upper-level
trough that extends from Tampa Bay, FL south-southwestward to
Belize. In the SW Caribbean, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted in association with the east Pacific monsoon
trough south of 12N between 78W-81W. Recent ASCAT satellite data
shows strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea
offshore northeast Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh
trades are noted elsewhere east of 80W from 10N-18N. Mainly
moderate trades prevail elsewhere, except for fresh in the Gulf of
Honduras, and gentle south of Cuba. Seas are 6-8 ft in the south-
central Caribbean, 4-6 ft elsewhere over the eastern and central
Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure over the north-central Atlantic
will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern
Caribbean, and fresh to strong trade winds in the central portion
of Caribbean through early Thu. The fresh to strong trade winds in
the central portion will diminish in coverage by Thu evening and
change little through Sat night. Gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds in the northwestern Caribbean will increase to
moderate to fresh on Tue, then diminish to gentle winds on Fri.
East winds in the Gulf of Honduras will increase to strong on Tue
night and continue to pulse at night through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough extending from Tampa Bay, Florida to Belize
is inducing isolated showers and tstorms over the NW Bahamas and
Straits of Florida. Another upper-level low is located near Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands, but dry Saharan air is preventing any
showers from developing in the area. Elsewhere, the subtropical
Bermuda-Azores High continues to dominate the Atlantic. The
subtropical ridge axis extends west-southwestward from a 1029 mb
high pressure near 37N33W to 31N53W to 27N65W to the Florida Keys.
Gentle to moderate wind speeds are present across the entire area
north of 20N and west of 50W, with seas of 4-6 ft. ASCAT shows
fresh to strong NE winds east of 35W and north of 20N, where seas
are likely 7 to 10 ft. In the tropical Atlantic, fresh NE to E
trades and 6-8 ft seas are from 10N-20N between 35W-60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure
ridge will build westward on Tue, then begin to lift northward on
Wed, reaching near 30N on Thu and to N of 31N Fri allowing for
moderate to fresh south to southwest winds over the waters east of
NE Florida to become light to gentle southeast to south winds Fri
through Sat night. Moderate to fresh east winds will continue
south of 25N through the next few days, except between the
southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola, where winds will be fresh to
strong at night.

$$
Hagen
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