[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112314
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jul 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 22W from 18N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04N to 12N between 20W and 23W.

An central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 45W from 19N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted
at this time with this feature.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 72W from 19N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted
at this time with this feature.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 85W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 16N to 19N, between 81W and 87W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
to 09N23W to 11N31W to 07N42W. The ITCZ extends from 07N49W to the
coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 12N between 14W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters supporting
gentle to moderate S-SW winds across the majority of the basin. A
surface trough is analyzed in the north-central Gulf from 26N90W
to the Alabama coast near 30N88W. Scattered moderate convection
associated with this trough is observed from 23N to 30N between
83W and 93W. Buoys and altimeter data confirm seas are 2-4 ft
throughout the Gulf.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging prevails over the area,
while a surface trough extends from southern Alabama to 28N90W.
The present gradient will maintain light to gentle southwest winds
east of 90W through the forecast period, except over the far NE
Gulf where a slighter tighter gradient near the trough will
support moderate to fresh southwest winds. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds west of 90W will increase to moderate to locally
fresh speeds at night through Thu as broad low pressure develops
over Texas and northeastern Mexico. Light to gentle winds are
expected across the Gulf on Fri, except over the eastern Bay of
Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough coming
off the Yucatan peninsula at night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and the Colombian
low is supporting fresh to strong winds across the south-central
Caribbean off the Colombia coast and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Seas are 5-8 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted across the majority of the basin,
except in the NW portion where winds are gentle to moderate and
seas are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, strong high pressure centered over the north-
central Atlantic extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean will
maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern
Caribbean, and fresh to strong winds in the central and
southwestern portions of the basin through Sat night. These winds
will be modulated by a pair of tropical waves moving across the
area. Gentle to moderate winds in the northwest Caribbean will
increase to moderate to fresh on Tue, and reach strong speeds in
the Gulf of Honduras on Tue night and continue to pulse at night
through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Bermuda-Azores High continues to dominate the
Atlantic. A ridge extends along 27N in the western basin. North of
the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from the SW with 5-7 ft
seas. South of the ridge, winds are gentle to moderate from the
SE with 4-6 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, winds are gentle to
moderate from the E with an earlier altimeter pass confirming
seas are 5-7 ft north of 20N, and 6-8 ft south of 20N. In the
eastern Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with 6-8
ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Azores high will continue to
extend a ridge southwestward across the region. This will maintain
moderate to fresh east to southeast winds mainly S of 25N during
the forecast period, except N of Hispaniola where winds will reach
strong speeds at night Tue and Wed. Moderate to fresh southwest
winds north of 29N associated with the passage of a frontal
boundary north of the area will diminish slightly on Tue and
continue through Thu. Afterwards, these winds become mainly gentle
southeast to south through Sat night.

$$
AReinhart
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