[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jul 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from west of the
Cabo Verde Islands at 18N southward, and moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 09N between
25W and 30W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W from 22N southward
across the Virgin Islands into eastern Venezuela, and moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted behind the
wave near Trinidad and Tobago from 09N to 13N between 59W and
63W, and also ahead of the wave near Puerto Rico.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 87W from northern
Yucatan across western Honduras into the East Pacific, and moving
W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
found near the coast of Yucatan and Belize, including the Gulf of
Honduras and Yucatan Channel.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits into the Atlantic near the Mautitania-Senegal
border through 12N20W to 09N25W. Scattered moderate convection is
present up to 90 nm north, and up to 150 nm south of the trough.
An ITCZ extends from 08N30W across 07N45W to north of Guyana near
10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 110 nm along
either side of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, including the coast of Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level trough near Mobile, Alabama is generating scattered
showers and thunderstorms near New Orleans and the north-central
Gulf. A weak surface trough is producing isolated thunderstorms
over the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Keys. A surface
ridge extends southwestward from a 1019 mb high south of the
Florida Panhandle to the western Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle
winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft are found over the north-central and
northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will stay in place through
tonight then drift northward to along 30N through mid-week.
Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail through this
period. NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each night along the NW
Yucatan peninsula through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low near 18N83W is enhancing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms near and south of western Cuba. Convergent
trades are producing similar conditions near Jamaica and Haiti.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
details about convection in the Caribbean Sea.

The gradient between a 1026 mb high east of Bermuda and a 1010 mb
low in the SW Caribbean is generating fresh to strong ENE to E
trades and 7 to 10 ft seas over the south-central basin. Moderate
to fresh easterly trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft are present for the
west-central and north-central basin. Gentle monsoonal winds and
seas of 4 to 7 ft are seen across the southwestern basin. Gentle
to moderate E to ESE trades and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, a strong tropical wave along 87W will move
across the Yucatan Peninsula today through tonight. Behind the
wave, a surge of fresh to strong winds and high seas will move
across the western Caribbean waters through mid-day today, then
gradually diminish into mid-week. The next tropical wave will move
across the eastern Caribbean today, and across the central
Caribbean Wed and Thu. Winds and seas will increase again Thu over
the south-central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the
area following this tropical wave.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the northwest Bahamas. An upper-level low near
23N62W is causing scattered moderate convection north of the
Leeward Islands from 21N to 26N between 54W and 25W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A 1026 mb high pressure located in the central Atlantic near
32N51W is providing light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north
of 26N between 30W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Farther south,
moderate to locally fresh NE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are
evident from 08N to 26N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles.
Similar winds and seas are also seen near the Canary Islands north
of 16N between the African coast and 30W. Gentle to moderate NE
and southeasterly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest
of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge extending from the
central Atlantic to northeastern Florida will persist through the
rest of the week. The surface trough near the northwest Bahamas
will continue west-northwestward across South Florida and the
Keys today, then reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tue
evening. Fresh winds, rough seas and active weather will accompany
this trough, while fresh winds and increasing seas will build
westward and to south of 24N behind the trough through Wed. Winds
will pulse to strong off the northern coast of Hispaniola each
night through the period.

$$

Chan
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