[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050933
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jul 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 27W from 02N to
18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 06N to 08N, between 23W and 31W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 63W from 06N to
22N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed behind the wave from 08N to 12N, between
55W and 61W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from
10.5N to 12.5N between 63W and 65W, and from 19N to 20N between
62W and 64W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 85W from 08N to
22N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted from 10.5N to 20N between 83W and 87.5W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 09N25W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N30W to 05N43W to the coast
of Guyana near 06N57W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is observed along and south of the monsoon trough from 08N to
13N, east of 21W to the African coast, and along the ITCZ from
03N to 08N, between 31W and 57W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is aiding in
initiating scattered strong convection across the SW Caribbean
south of 11N to interior Colombia between 74W and 79W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure in the NE Gulf and a relaxed pressure gradient
are causing favorable marine conditions across the basin. Winds
are moderate or less from the E to SE and seas are slight.
Isolated moderate thunderstorms dot the coastal waters of Florida
from the Big Bend region to offshore of southwest Florida and
across central portions. Widely scattered thunderstorms are noted
across the Louisiana coastal waters between the Atchafalaya Bay
and the Chandeleur Islands.

For the forecast, A surface ridge will extend across the northern
Gulf through tonight before drifting northward to along 30N
through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will
prevail through this time. The northern end of a tropical wave
has sheared away from the wave now along 85W, and is across the
central Bahamas approaching 80W this morning. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms, and a modest increase in winds
associated with this feature will move westward across the
Straits of Florida and into the southeast Gulf this afternoon
through tonight. NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each evening
and night along the NW Yucatan peninsula through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
details about convection in the Caribbean Sea. A middle to upper
level low center is centered across the NW Caribbean and is
supporting the active convection across the northern portion of
this tropical wave.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure east of Bermuda
and a 1010 mb low in the SW Caribbean is generating fresh to
strong E winds through the central basin, where seas are 8-11 ft.
Fresh easterly winds and seas to 8 ft extend farther westward to
81W across the SW Caribbean, behind the tropical wave. Trade winds
are moderate in the E Caribbean with 5-7 ft seas. Winds are
gentle to moderate in the NW Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, A strong tropical wave along 85W and Central
America will cross the Gulf of Honduras early today, then move
into the Yucatan Peninsula today through tonight. Behind the wave,
a surge of fresh to strong winds and high seas will move across
the western Caribbean waters through midday today then gradually
diminish into mid-week. The next tropical wave will move across
the eastern Caribbean today and across the central Caribbean Wed
and Thu. Winds and seas will increase again Thu over the south-
central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area
following this tropical wave.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A 1026 mb high pressure located in the central Atlantic near
32N50W extends a ridge westward to coastal Georgia. In the
western Atlantic, gentle S to SE winds become moderate E to SE
winds south of 26N. Seas are 4-6 ft. The northern end of the
tropical wave across the western Caribbean has sheared off in the
past days and is moving through the central Bahamas early this
morning, inducing scattered moderate convection between 77W and
80W. In the central Atlantic, gentle E winds increase to moderate
south of 29N, where seas are 5-7 ft. In the eastern Atlantic,
moderate NE winds increase to fresh south of the Canary Islands.
Seas are 6-8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will persist throughout
the week. A low level trough along 78W across the central Bahamas
will shift W-NW and reach 80W and SE Florida this morning, then
into the SE Gulf of Mexico by Tue evening. Fresh winds, rough seas
and active weather will accompany this trough, while fresh winds
and increasing seas will build westward and to S of 24N behind the
trough through Wed. Winds will pulse to strong off the northern
coast of Hispaniola each evening and night through the period.

$$
Stripling
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