[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jul 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 02/0300 UTC, Tropical Storm Bonnie has made landfall in
Costa Rica and was centered near 10.9N 83.8W, or 70 nm S of
Bluefields Nicaragua moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to
100 nm NE of the center. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 150 nm
from the center in the northeastern quadrant with peak seas of 16
ft. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is from
the coast of Panama north to 15N west of 80W, including inland
over Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Bonnie will spend about 12 hours
moving across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica this
morning before emerging over the eastern Pacific Ocean as a weaker
tropical storm. Bonnie is expected to strengthen again in the
Pacific, with the forecast reaching hurricane strength by Monday,
04 July. Bonnie will continue to produce heavy rain across
portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica this morning, while the winds
gradually decrease. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is in the Atlantic near 35W, from 02N
to 17N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 06N to 10N between 32W and 38W.

The axis of a strong tropical wave is near 62W over the eastern
Caribbean, from 18N southward, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 13N to 18N between 57W and
63W. The forward progress of this wave has slowed. As of 0000
UTC, the wave had not yet crossed St. Maarten according to the
upper air sounding from the Island. A scatterometer pass followed
this at 0110 UTC and confirmed the location of the wind shift with
fresh to strong winds observed approximately 2-3 degrees on either
side of the northern portion of the wave, from 14N to 20N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 10N26W. The ITCZ continues from 10N26W to 10N32W, where the
convergent flow is disrupted by a tropical wave. The ITCZ
continues west of the wave from 06N40W to 03N51W, along NE Brazil.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 11N between
18W and 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge extends from high pressure near Bermuda
across the Gulf, with lower pressure over Mexico. This pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh SSE winds in the western Gulf and
moderate to fresh W winds in the southern Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft
in these areas. Conditions are more favorable in the NE basin,
with gentle winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, a surface ridge extends across the Gulf tonight
along 28N and will dominate the Gulf waters through early next
week to produce mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night near the NW
Yucatan peninsula through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Tropical Storm Bonnie.

Outside of the conditions associated with Tropical Storm Bonnie,
fresh to strong easterly winds prevail over the central Caribbean
with 8-10 ft seas. Fresh to strong winds associated with a
tropical wave are generating 8-10 ft seas near the leeward
islands and south of Puerto Rico. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail over the NW Caribbean with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Bonnie will continue inland
during the next several hours before emerging across the Pacific
waters Sat afternoon. Large seas across the western Caribbean
associated with Bonnie will gradually subside through Sat. A
strong tropical wave located along 63W will continue westward
across the eastern Caribbean Sea through Sat night and across the
central Caribbean Sun and Sun night. Any development of this
system should be slow to occur. Expect a broad surge of strong
winds and high seas across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters with
this wave as it moves across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off NE Florida
associated with low pressure near South Carolina. Winds are
moderate to fresh from the south in this area. A 1023 mb high
pressure near Bermuda dominates the pattern in the remainder of
the western Atlantic with gentle to moderate easterlies increasing
to fresh south of 22N. Seas are 4-6 ft north of 22N and 6-10 ft
south of 22N. In the central Atlantic, winds are generally
moderate from the east with 5-7 ft seas. Winds are also moderate
in the eastern Atlantic, but predominately from the NE.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge remains centered
across the central Atlantic N of 30N and will continue to
dominate the forecast waters through the upcoming weekend. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and TS Bonnie will support
pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds N of Hispaniola and in the
Windward Passage through the weekend. Then, a strong tropical wave
will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea over the weekend and
bring a broad surge of strong winds and large seas across the
waters S of 22N through Sun.

$$
Flynn
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