[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012259
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jul 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered near 11.3N 82.5W at 01/2100
UTC, or 90 nm ESE of Bluefields Nicaragua moving W at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 100 nm north of the center. Seas 12 ft
or greater are within 150 nm from the center in the northeastern
quadrant and 90 nm from the center in the southeastern quadrant,
with peak seas of 16 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from the coast of Panama north to 15N west of 80W,
including inland over Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Bonnie will move
across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica tonight, and
emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Sat. Bonnie is expected
to strengthen before it makes landfall tonight, then weaken
inland. Bonnie will produce heavy rain across portions of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Sat. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is in the Atlantic near 34W, from
18N southward, moving west at 20 kt. No significant convection is
noted near this tropical wave.

The axis of a strong tropical wave is near 62W over the eastern
Caribbean, from 18N southward, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed west of the wave axis, from 12N
to 18N between 57W and 64W. The 1200 UTC sounding from Barbados
showed a significant increase in atmospheric moisture in the lee
of the tropical wave, in addition to strong trade winds at the
surface.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 10N25W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 10N25W to 07N30W and
from 05N35W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection associated with the monsoon trough is from 07N to 09N
between 19W and 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough is analyzed off the upper Texas coast. A
weak surface ridge extends from 1019 mb high pressure centered
off Apalachicola, Florida to the Tamaulipas coast of Mexico. This
pattern is supporting light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft
seas. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted off the southwest
coast of Florida.

For the forecast, the weak trough off Texas will move inland
overnight. The surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
through early next week to produce mainly gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse
at night near the NW Yucatan peninsula through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Tropical Storm Bonnie.

Outside of the conditions associated with Tropical Storm Bonnie,
strong easterly winds prevail over the central Caribbean with 8
to 10 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the eastern
Caribbean with 5 to 7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
over the NW Caribbean with 3 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, Bonnie will move inland to 11.2N 84.4W Sat morning,
before continuing westward and emerging across the Pacific
waters Sat afternoon. The strong tropical wave will continue
westward across the central Caribbean late Sat through Sun, and
into the southwest Caribbean Mon. Any development of this system
should be slow to occur. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas
across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters with this wave as it
moves across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active off
northeast Florida, well south of developing low pressure moving
off the Georgia coast. Farther east, the Atlantic is being
dominated by the Azores High. A weak surface trough remains
stationary from 30N54W to 24N57W. Fresh to strong winds and 8 to
10 ft seas are evident east of the Windward and Leeward Islands
to 50W, following the tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean.
Elsewhere, the pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade
winds south of 22N west of 35W, with 5 to 7 ft seas, and light
to gentle breezes north of 22N west of 35W with 4 to 6 ft seas in
easterly swell. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are
noted east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue
to dominate the forecast waters through the upcoming weekend. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and T.S. Bonnie will support
pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds north of Hispaniola and in
the Windward Passage through the weekend. A strong tropical wave
moving across the eastern Caribbean Sea Sat and across the
central Caribbean through Sun will bring a broad surge of winds
and seas across the waters south of 22N through Sun.

$$
Christensen
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