[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311636
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jan 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 02N35W to 01N50W
near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is evident
from 01N to 03N between 32W and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near the coast of the Florida
Peninsula. This is leading to gentle winds in the NE Gulf and
mainly moderate SE winds in the SE and central Gulf. To the west
of the associated ridge, low pressure developing over Texas is
leading to increasing fresh SE winds in the western Gulf.
Scattered moderate convection has also formed within 90 nm of the
Texas coast. Seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 5 to 7 ft over the
western Gulf W of 95W.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong SE to S winds will
spread across much of the Gulf through mid-week as the high
pressure moves NE of the basin. The next cold front is expected to
push off the Texas coast on Thu bringing another round of strong
to gale force northerly winds and building seas across the western
Gulf Thu night and Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered N of the area extends into the western
Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong NE winds continue in the
Windward Passage and offshore E Cuba and Nicaragua, in the wake
of a now dissipated cold front. Otherwise, mainly moderate to
fresh trades prevail. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the eastern and
central basin, with 5 to 7 ft seas gradually decaying in the
western Caribbean. No significant convection is occurring.

For the forecast, expect fresh to strong NE winds across the
Windward Passage and off Colombia, especially at night, through
Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the lee of
Cuba through Wed night. Similar winds are expected in the Gulfs
of Honduras and Venezuela Wed night and Thu night. Fresh to strong
winds are also forecast south of Hispaniola Thu night. Mainly
moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Low pressure N of the area is leading to some mainly fresh W
winds offshore the N Florida coast. A stationary front enters the
area near 31N56W and extends SW to the N coast of Hispaniola.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90
nm on either side of the front. Mainly fresh NE winds are present
behind the front, highest S of 26N and E of 75W, Seas in this
area are 8 to 11 ft. Conditions are more favorable ahead of the
front with gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas extending to
around 50W. Farther east, ridging from the Azores high dominates
the pattern with winds generally moderate to fresh from the E to
NE. Moderate seas in the 6 to 8 ft range prevail across the
central and eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 65W, winds behind the aforementioned
stationary front are gradually diminishing. However, strong NE
winds are expected today N of Hispaniola. Large seas in the wake
of the front will gradually subside E of the Bahamas tonight.
Trade winds will increase S of 25N Wed as the pressure gradient
increases. Looking ahead, a front over the central Atlantic may
push fresh to strong E winds over the waters east of 73W Thu into
Fri. Seas will build NE of the Bahamas Wed night into Fri, in
accordance with the increasing winds.

$$
KONARIK
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