[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310952
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jan 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 02N35W to 01N50W
near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is evident
from 00N to 05N between 11W and 20W, and from 01N to 03N between
30W and 39W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 high pressure is centered in the eastern Gulf near 26N84W.
This is causing mainly gentle to moderate winds across the central
and eastern gulf with moderate to fresh SE flow in the western
portion of the basin. Seas are mainly slight with moderate
conditions observed in the western gulf and Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the high center currently located over the
northeastern Gulf will continue to move eastward today, then a
ridge will persist across the basin through Thu. Fresh to strong
southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf tonight
into Mon morning. These winds will spread eastward across the Gulf
region through Thu as the pressure gradient tightens between the
ridge and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico. The next cold
front is expected to push off the Texas coast on Thu bringing
another round of gale force northerly winds and building seas
across the western Gulf possibly Thu night and Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1025 mb high pressure over the northeast Gulf extends into
the western Caribbean. Fresh NE winds with a strong breeze in the
Windward Passage and offshore Nicaragua continue behind the front.
Seas in the area are moderate at 6-8 ft and abating. Conditions
are generally more favorable east of the boundary with a moderate
E-NE breeze and slight seas. The exception is in the Colombian
Basin where an area of fresh winds along the coast of Colombia is
producing moderate sea heights.

For the forecast, Fresh to strong N to NE winds will persist
through the early morning hours along the coast of Honduras and
Nicaragua. Expect fresh to strong northerly winds across the
Windward Passage, mainly at night, through Wed night. Pulsing
fresh to strong winds are also expected near the coast of
Colombia, mainly at night, Mon night through Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Low pressure over the Carolinas is causing a small area of strong
SW winds along the northern coast of Florida with seas building to
8 ft. A stationary front enters the area from the central Atlantic
near 31N56W and extends to Hispaniola. Scattered thunderstorms
are noted along the front front Hispaniola north to beyond 31N.
Winds are moderate behind the front with rough seas prevailing
east of the Bahamas and approaching 13 ft north of 27N. Conditions
are more favorable ahead of the front with gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas. Farther east, ridging from the Azores
high dominates the pattern with winds generally moderate to fresh
from the E to NE. Moderate seas in the 6 to 8 ft range prevail
across the central and eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 65W, winds along the front are gradually
diminishing. However, large seas behind the front will persist E
of the Bahamas through tonight. An increase in the pressure
gradient across the region is expected to bring fresh to strong
easterly winds and building seas toward the end of the week.

$$
Torres
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