[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jan 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A strong cold front continues to push away from the Gulf of
Mexico and currently extends from a robust extratropical cyclone
off New England to the Caribbean Sea. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicate that strong to gale-force winds are
occurring in the offshore Veracruz waters. Seas range from 10 to
15 ft. Winds are forecast to decrease below gale-force and seas
subside below 12 ft this afternoon.

Please, read the latest Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center,
at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml,
for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:

The aforementioned cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near
31N69W and continues to the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted E of the cold front,
especially N of 27N and W of 63W. Recent satellite-derived wind
data depict W-SW gale-force winds behind the cold front, mainly N
of 27N, with some values over 40 kts N of 29N. Seas range from 10
to 17 ft behind the front and are forecast to build to near 21 ft
late this afternoon and early tonight. A buoy about 120 nm E of
Cape Canaveral, FL, is reporting wave heights of 15 ft. Conditions
will begin to improve late tonight into Sun morning as winds
become gentle to moderate across the area. Higher seas will
continue through Monday, and subside by Tuesday.

Please, read the latest Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11W to 05N19W. The ITCZ then
continues from 0519W to 03N32W to 02N45W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted along and south of the monsoon
trough from 02N to 08N and E of 22W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about a
gale- force wind warning.

A strong ridge extending from the southern United States to NE
Mexico dominates the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in dry continental
air to envelop the region. Stratocumulus clouds are seen on
satellite imagery across the Gulf. Surface observations and recent
scatterometer wind data indicate that strong to near gale-force
N-NW winds with frequent gusts to gale-force are present in the E
of 90W and S of 22N. Fresh or weaker winds are found in the rest
of the Gulf. Seas greater than 8 ft prevail E of 90W and S of 24W,
with seas less than 8 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds and seas will begin to diminish across
the Gulf waters from W to E later today into tonight. Fresh to
strong southerly winds will develop off the south Texas and
northern Mexico coast Sun night into Mon. A frontal system will
then move off the Texas coast by Mon night and track across the
northern Gulf through Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong cold front extends from a robust extratropical cyclone
off New England to eastern Cuba near 21N78W to southern Belize
near 17N89W. Only pockets of low level moisture are found ahead
and behind the frontal boundary, resulting in isolated, light
showers. Fresh to strong N winds are noted behind the cold front
on recent scatterometer satellite data. Moderate to fresh trades,
with the strongest winds occurring offshore NW Colombia, prevail
in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Seas of 6-10 ft are occurring
behind the cold front, with the highest seas being found in the
Yucatan Channel. Seas of 3-6 ft are noted in the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front is forecast to reach
from the Windward Passage to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua
tonight and from Haiti to southern Nicaragua by Sun night while
weakening. Fresh to locally strong winds will continue to pulse
across the Windward Passage through midweek.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about a
gale-force wind warning and accompanying sea heights that are
related to a cold front.

A strong high pressure over the NE Atlantic extends southwestward
across the central and portions of the western tropical Atlantic,
allowing for a generally dry atmosphere to dominate the basin
outside of the strong cold front located W of 67W. A feature of
interest is a 1017 mb low pressure near 30N40W producing isolated
showers, mainly in the northern and eastern quadrants. A couple of
surface troughs are found well east and NE of the Lesser Antilles,
but no significant convection is associated with these features.
Visible satellite imagery depict a sand storm offshore NW Africa,
affecting the Canary Islands. A scatterometer satellite pass
earlier this morning showed fresh to strong SE winds offshore
Morocco. Seas in the area are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, fresh or weaker
trades are noted with seas of 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, as the front mentioned in the Special Features continues
to push eastward today, gale force winds will continue N of 27N
with seas building to 16-20 ft. The gale force winds will end by
tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail on Sun but large
seas will persist E of the Bahamas through early next week.

$$
DELGADO
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