[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291054
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jan 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A strong cold front continues to push away from the Gulf of
Mexico. Gale- force winds along the offshore of Veracruz, with
sea heights ranging from 8-13 ft. Strong winds with frequent gusts
to gale force continue across the central and eastern Gulf of
Mexico. These conditions will end this afternoon, with marine
conditions improving by tonight.

Please, read the latest Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center,
at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml,
for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:

The strong cold front stretches from 31N74W to the central Bahamas
to the eastern Cuba coast near 21N76W. Overnight scatterometer
showed gale-force winds behind the front with strong winds on
either side of the front. Seas range 12-15 ft behind the front. A
squall line is moving ahead of the front from 24N to 31N between
67W and 74W. Gale force winds are expected to continue N of 27N
through tonight with seas building to near 20 ft. Conditions will
begin to improve late tonight into Sun morning as winds become
gentle to moderate across the area. Higher seas will continue
through Mon, and subside by Tue.

Please, read the latest Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11W to 05N25W. The ITCZ is not
distinguishable at the moment. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted along and south of the monsoon trough
from 02N to 07N between 10W and 22W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about a
gale- force wind warning.

As high pressure continues to build across the basin, dry
conditions prevail. Buoys are reporting 4-7 ft seas across the NW
Gulf of Mexico. Seas up to 12-14 ft are occurring in the southern
and eastern Gulf with the highest winds.

For the forecast, gale force winds are expected to continue along
the Veracruz coast through this morning as the cold front moves
away from the basin. Seas will also continue to range from 12-15
ft near the strongest winds. The central and eastern Gulf of
Mexico can expect frequent gusts to gale force through this
morning with rough seas. Marine conditions will improve later
today into tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop
off the south Texas and northern Mexico coast Sun night into Mon.
A frontal system will then move off the Texas coast by Mon night
and track across the northern Gulf through Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front continues to push southward across the NW Caribbean,
stretching from the eastern Cuba coast near 20N77W to the northern
Belize coast near 17N88W. Strong winds with seas 8-10 ft are
moving across the Yucatan Channel southward toward the Gulf of
Honduras. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong winds are occurring
along the Colombia coast with gentle to moderate winds across
the eastern and central Caribbean. Outside of the NW Caribbean,
seas range 4 to 6 ft across the basin. No significant convection
is occurring at this time.

For the forecast, the cold front will stretch from the Windward
Passage to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua tonight and from
Haiti to southern Nicaragua by Sun night. Fresh to strong winds
will continue to spread across the NW basin with 8-10 ft seas as
the front pushes southward during the weekend. Fresh to strong
winds will continue to pulse across the Windward Passage through
midweek.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about a
gale-force wind warning and accompanying sea heights that are
related to a cold front.

Outside of the western Atlantic, a 1015 mb low is located near
25N58W with a trough along the low from 20N59W to 31N56W. Another
trough is analyzed from 14N46W to 23N47W with isolated
thunderstorms occurring about 200 nm east of it. Moderate to fresh
winds prevail across the central Atlantic with seas 5-8 ft. High
pressure extends across the eastern Atlantic with gentle to
moderate winds and seas 5-8 ft.

For the forecast, as the cold front continues to push eastward
today, gale force winds will continue N of 27N with seas building
to 16-20 ft. The gale force winds will end by tonight along with
the widespread fresh to strong winds. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail on Sun. Large seas will persist E of the Bahamas
through early next week.

$$
AReinhart
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