[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jan 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and the Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along
03N/04N, to 15W. The ITCZ is along 01S21W, crossing the Equator
at 24W/25W, to 01N30W and 01N35W. One surface trough is along
22W/23W from the Equator to 03N. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is from 01N to 03N between 20W and 25W. A second
surface trough is along 04N34W, to the Equator along 38W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
elsewhere from 08N southward between 15W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 mb low pressure center is in the north central Gulf of
Mexico near 27N91W. A stationary front extends northeastward,
away from the 1008 mb low pressure center, to the coastal waters
of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend. A cold front
extends southwestward, away from the 1008 mb low pressure
center, to 21N96W. A stationary front continues from 21N96W,
inland to 21N98W in Mexico, and to 25N99W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong from 180 nm to 360
nm to the east of the 1008 mb low pressure center. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and other areas of rainshowers,
are to the north of the line that stretches from the Florida
Keys, to 22N90W in the south central Gulf of Mexico, to the
northern coast of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

A surface ridge is along 23N72W in the Atlantic Ocean, through
the NW Bahamas, to a SE Georgia 1017 mb high pressure center.

Moderate to gentle wind speeds span the Gulf of Mexico. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in most of the eastern half
of the Gulf of Mexico, and in the SW corner of the area. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere.

A cold front extends from a low pressure centered over Louisiana
offshore waters to Tecolutla, Mexico. Fresh to locally strong N
to NE winds follow this front with winds to near gale-force
speeds affecting parts of the NE Gulf offshore waters. The low
will move to the NE Gulf through tonight, where it will weaken
before tracking SE and moving E of the area Wed night. The next
cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf Fri followed by
strong to near gale-force winds possibly reaching gale force in
the Tampico and Veracruz offshore waters Fri evening into Sat
morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southernmost part of an Atlantic Ocean cold front reaches
the SE Bahamas. A surface trough extends from the end of the
cold front into the Windward Passage. Precipitation: isolated
moderate rainshowers are inland and in the coastal waters
between Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba.

Shallow moisture, that is embedded in the trade wind flow, will
continue to move through the basin, producing isolated to
scattered passing rainshowers.

Strong winds have been within 90 nm to 130 nm of the Colombian
coast between 73W and 78W, and in parts of the Gulf of
Venezuela. Moderate wind speeds cover the areas that are from
Hispaniola southward between 64W and 80W. Gentle to moderate
wind speeds are from 10N to 20N between 53W and 64W. The sea
heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet in the areas of the
comparatively fastest wind speeds. The sea heights range from 3
feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

Moderate to locally fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras, and in
the central and eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea, will
diminish to gentle to moderate speeds on Thu; except for the
south central basin where strong winds will prevail. Fresh to
strong winds will continue in the northern Colombia offshores
through Fri night, as high pressure north of the area is
replaced by a strong cold front, with the southernmost part of
the front being forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sea on Sat
morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas
following the front will affect the NW basin through the
remainder weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 30N68W. A warm front
extends from the 1010 mb low pressure center northeastward,
beyond 31N60W. A cold front extends from the 1010 mb low
pressure center, to 25N69W, and to the SE Bahamas. A surface
trough continues from the SE Bahamas into the Windward Passage.
Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 23N
northward between 50W and 80W. Strong winds are within 210 nm of
the center in the NE quadrant. Moderate to gentle winds are
elsewhere within 500 nm to the south of the low pressure center,
and within 360 nm of the center to the southwest of the low
pressure center.

The sea heights range from 9 feet to 12 feet from 27N northward
between 27W and 40W. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 6
feet, nearly everywhere from 40W westward. The only exception is
within 240 nm of the coast of NE Florida, with sea heights
ranging from 3 feet to 4 feet. The sea heights range from 7 feet
to 8 feet from 17N to 22N between 20W and 30W. The sea heights
range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the area.

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 26N38W. A surface trough
curves away from the low pressure center, to 20N34W and to
13N40W. A remnant cloud line continues from 13N40W, along
11N/12N, to 60W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 420 nm of the center in the SE
semicircle, and within 180 nm of the center in the NW quadrant.
Rainshowers are possible from 11N/12N northward between 40W and
60W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120
nm of the NW part of the Cabo Verde Islands. Near gale-force
winds are within 240 nm of the 1012 mb low pressure center in
the NW quadrant. Strong winds are elsewhere within 420 nm of the
center in the northern semicircle. Moderate to strong winds are
in the remainder of the area that is to the north of the line
that stretches from 30N50W to 25N46W to 19N31W to 10N24W, to the
coast of Africa along 10N.

A cold front extends from a low pressure centered SW of Bermuda
near 30N68W to the southern Bahamas. The low will move NE out of
the area today. The trailing cold front will slide gradually
eastward into late week, while another cold front moves
southward down the east coast of the U.S. Wed into Thu. Fresh to
strong N to NE wind will follow the second front with building
seas affecting the offshore waters N of 28N Wed night through
Fri. A low pressure is forecast to develop in the NE Florida
offshore waters Fri morning along with a cold front that will
affect the Florida seaboard Fri night and the Bahamas Sat and
Sat night. Strong to near gale winds and rough seas will affect
the region during this period.

$$
MT
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