[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250947
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jan 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends along the S coast of western Africa
along 05N, then enters the Atlantic off Liberia at 05N09W and
continues to 04N11W. The ITCZ continues from 04N11W to 02N22W to
the equator near 39W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from the equator to 10N between 17W and 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1010 mb low pressure center is noted in the NW Gulf near 27N92W.
A stationary front extends ENE from the low to near the mouth of
the Mississippi River and continues to near Apalachicola ,
Florida. A cold front stretches SE from the low to just S of
Tampico, Mexico. Then, a surface trough extends ESE from the low
across the Gulf, reaching as far E as near Tampa Bay. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is present N and E of the
low, mainly N of the surface trough, over much of the north-
central and NE Gulf of Mexico. To the NW of the low, strong NW
winds have developed, while E of the low, moderate to fresh S
winds prevail. North of the stationary front, portions of the far
northern Gulf are experiencing fresh ENE winds. Seas of 5 to 7 ft
are occurring in the strong winds NW of the low, with 3 to 5 ft
seas across the basin.

Elsewhere across the Gulf of Mexico, a surface trough has moved W
offshore the Yucatan Peninsula, although no significant weather is
being induced by this features. High pressure over the eastern
Florida Peninsula continues to weaken and move E, reducing its
influence on Gulf weather.

For the forecast, the low pressure in the NW Gulf will move
across the northern and eastern Gulf through Wed. This low and its
associated cold front will be strong to near gale-force
winds,higher seas, and thunderstorms to the region. High pressure
will bring more tranquil conditions Wed night through Thu night.
Another cold front is forecast to move into the Gulf Fri, and will
likely bring strong to possibly gale conditions to portions of
the western Gulf Fri night and Sat, along with building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong winds continue within 90 nm of the Colombian coast, due to
the tight gradient between high pressure north of the basin and a
1007 mb low over northern Colombia, N of Bogota. Seas are
building in the area of strong winds, currently at 8 ft. No other
significant surface features are noted across the basin, and no
significant convection is occurring. Moderate to fresh trades are
noted elsewhere. Away from the higher seas near Colombia, seas are
4 to 6 ft in the central Caribbean and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in
the central Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombian
will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean
through Fri night. Generally gentle to moderate trades will
prevail elsewhere. A cold front is likely to approach the NW
Caribbean Thu night, then dissipate by the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1012 mb low pressure located near 26N36W is producing near gale
force E winds on the N side of the center to 29N, between 34W and
40W. Seas of 8 to 14 ft have been generated by these winds.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 20N to 28N between 29W
and 37W. The low will continue to move west over the next day or
two while weakening, and although some strong winds will continue,
near-gale conditions should end later today.

Another low pressure, this one 1010 mb, is centered between the
Bahamas and Bermuda. A warm front extends ENE from the low along
30N, before transitioning to a cold front N of 31N60W. A cold
front extends SW from the low through the central Bahamas.
Finally, a pre-frontal trough extends from S of Bermuda to the
Turks and Caicos Islands. This combination of features is leading
to a broad area of moderate convection, N of 27N, between 55W and
68W. N and E of the low, extending to 58W, fresh E winds prevail,
with for the remainder of the basin N of 20N and W of 50W, gentle
to moderate winds dominate. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across
this same area, except 3 ft or less inside the Bahamas.

Between the two lows, a couple of weak surface troughs have
dissipated overnight, allowing for ridging from high pressure
centered over the Azores to dominate much of the area. Mainly
gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail, with some fresh NE winds
between and including the Cabo Verde and Canary Islands. Seas are
generally 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, the low pressure between Bermuda
and the Bahamas will move NE out of the area today. The trailing
cold will gradually slide east into late week, while another cold
front moves southward down the east coast of the U.S. Wed into
Thu. Strong N winds can be expected behind this front. Low
pressure will move off the South Florida coast Wed night, and
winds from the low combined with the aforementioned cold front may
near gale levels Thu into Fri. Yet another stronger cold front is
expected to emerge off the Florida coast Fri night, bringing
another round of strong to near gale- force winds.

$$
KONARIK
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