[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jan 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and the Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning...

The surface pressure gradient, between W Atlantic Ocean high
pressure and lower pressure in Colombia and in Panama, will
continue to support pulsing winds to minimal gale force, in the
south central Caribbean Sea, particularly within about 90 nm of
the coast of Colombia at night. The sea heights will build to
a range from 10-12 ft, with the fastest wind speeds.
These marine conditions are expected tonight, and again on
Friday night.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A cold front currently is moving through the Florida Panhandle,
into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the western sections
of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is to the north of the line, from the Florida
Big Bend to 23N98W at the coast of Mexico. The forecast is for
the front to extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz
in Mexico by tonight. A weak low pressure center is forecast to
develop along the frontal boundary, in the central Gulf on
Friday. The low pressure center will move across Florida
quickly, into the western Atlantic Ocean on Saturday evening,
pushing the cold front across the southeastern Gulf into Sunday
morning. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected
in the wake of the front, in the western Gulf of Mexico.
Gale-force winds are forecast in the west central Gulf,
including in the Tampico Mexico area today and tonight.
Gale-force winds also are expected in the SW Gulf of Mexico,
including in the Veracruz Mexico region tonight and Fri. Large
seas are expected with the fastest wind winds.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details
about each gale-force wind situation.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian at 04N, to
04N05W. The ITCZ continues from 04N05W to 04N22W 07N34W 06N42W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
covers the area from 15N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the gale-force wind warning for the Gulf of Mexico, and the sea
heights.

Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow covers the Gulf.
Altimeter data and buoy observations indicate seas of 3-5 ft.

A cold front extends from near Biloxi, Mississippi to
27N93W and to inland Mexico near 24N98W. The front will reach
from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by tonight.
Weak low pressure is forecast to develop along the frontal
boundary over the central Gulf on Fri, and quickly move
northeastward across Florida into the western Atlantic Sat
evening pushing the cold front across the southeastern Gulf into
Sun morning. Strong northerly winds and building seas are
expected in the wake of the front over the western Gulf. Gale
force winds are forecast over the west-central Gulf, including
the Tampico area today and tonight. Gale force winds are also
expected over SW Gulf, including the Veracruz region tonight and
Fri. Large seas are expected with the strongest winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for the Caribbean Sea, and the sea
heights.

Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue
to move across the basin, producing isolated to scattered
passing showers.

Strong to gale force winds are in the south central Caribbean
Sea. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 5-7 ft are in
the eastern Caribbean Sea. Moderate trade winds and seas of
3-5 5 ft are in the NW part of the basin.

The pressure gradient between high pressure across
the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to
support pulsing winds to minimal gale force within about 90 nm
of the coast of Colombia tonight and Fri night. Seas will build
with these winds. The coverage area of the fresh to strong trade
winds has increased and will cover mainly the waters between 68W
and 80W through Fri. Generally moderate to fresh trades will
prevail elsewhere. A weakening cold front is forecast to enter
the far NW Caribbean Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N42W to 26N48W and 25N53W. The
front becomes stationary, and it continues from 25N53W to
24N66W. Some rainshwers are along the frontal boundary. The
pressure gradient between the front and high pressure to the
N supports fresh to strong N winds W of the front to about 50W.
Seas of 8-11 ft follow the front. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas of up to 13 ft are expected in the wake of the
front through Fri. This system is forecast to dissipate in
24-36 hours.

A 1006 mb low pressure center is just to the south of the
Azores. A surface trough curves away from the low pressure
center, through 26N22W and to 20N41W. Strong to gale force winds
are in the NE quadrant of the low center. Some rainshower
activity that is associated with this feature has been affecting
the Madeira Islands.

Low-topped trade wind showers are noted across the tropical
Atlantic, including the waters E of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate
to locally fresh trades prevail.

High pressure located northeast of Bermuda will be in control of
the weather pattern across the area today. The high will shift
northeastward allowing for the next cold front to move offshore
northern Florida on Fri, accompanied by fresh to strong winds.
Low pressure forecast to develop along the frontal boundary over
the Gulf of Mexico will move into the western Atlantic Sat
evening, then move across the northern forecast waters on Sun.

$$
MT/JA
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