[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201014
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jan 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:
The pressure gradient between high pressure across the W Atlantic
and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support pulsing
winds to minimal gale force across the south-central Caribbean,
particularly within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia at night.
Seas will build to 10-12 ft with the strongest winds. These
marine conditions are expected tonight and again Fri night.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A cold front currently entering the NW Gulf will extend from SE
Louisiana to Brownsville, Texas this morning, and from the Florida
Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by tonight. A weak low pressure
is then forecast to develop along the frontal boundary over the
central Gulf on Fri. The low will move across Florida into the
western Atlantic late Sat into Sat night dragging the cold front
across the SE Gulf. Strong northerly winds and building seas are
expected in the wake of the front over the western Gulf today
through Fri. Gale conditions are forecast over the west-central
Gulf, including the Tampico area today and tonight. Gale force
winds are also expected over SW Gulf, including the Veracruz
region tonight and Fri. Building seas of 10-14 ft are expected
with the strongest winds. Gale force winds may briefly occur near
the low center on Fri.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough mainly remains over the African continent. The
ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 04N40W to the coast of Brazil near
01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 02N to 05N between 18W and 29W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico. Refer
to the Special Features section above for more information.

A cold front currently entering the NW Gulf will likely move
across the Gulf region through Sat night. A band of showers with
embedded thunderstorms is associated with the front. The remainder
of the Gulf is under the influence of a ridge, that extends from
a 1031 mb high pressure located NE of Bermuda across Florida into
the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow
is noted per scatterometer data across the Gulf while altimeter
data and buoy observations indicate seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, marine conditions are forecast to deteriorate
across the Gulf waters beginning today as the aforementioned cold
front moves across the region. Please, see the Special Features
section for more information.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near
the coast of Colombia. Refer to the Special Features section above
for more details.

A surface trough is analyzed from near Key West, Florida across
western Cuba to near 19N84W. Recent scatterometer data show the
wind shift associated with the trough. Low level clouds and
possible showers are near the trough axis. Elsewhere, shallow
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move
across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

Other than the strong to gale force winds over the south-central
Caribbean, fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are
present across the eastern Caribbean, with moderate trade winds
and seas of 3 to 5 ft over the NW part of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
across the W Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to
support pulsing winds to minimal gale force within about 90 nm of
the coast of Colombia tonight and Fri night. Seas will build to
10-12 ft with these winds. The aerial extent of the fresh to
strong trade winds has increased and will cover mainly the waters
between 68W and 80W through Fri. Generally moderate to fresh
trades will prevail elsewhere. A weakening cold front is forecast
to enter the far NW Caribbean on Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N42W to 25N55W where it becomes
stationary to 23N65W. Some shower activity is along the frontal
boundary. The pressure gradient between the front and high pressure
to the N supports fresh to strong N winds W of the front to about
50W. Seas of 8-11 ft follow the front. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas of up to 13 ft are expected in the wake of the front
through Fri. This system is forecast to dissipate in 24-36 hours.

A low pressure of 1006 mb persist S of the Azores. A surface
trough extends from the low center located near 32N26W to 30N21W
to 22N25W to 20N42W. Strong to gale force winds are noted on the
NE quadrant of the low center based on satellite derived wind
data. Some shower activity associated with this feature is now
affecting the Madeira Islands.

Low-topped trade wind showers are noted across the tropical
Atlantic, including the waters E of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate
to locally fresh trades prevail.

For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure located NE of Bermuda
will be in control of the weather pattern across the area today.
This system will move NE allowing the next cold front to move
offshore northern Florida on Fri, accompanied by fresh to strong
winds. A low pressure forecast to develop along the frontal
boundary over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to emerge into the
western Atlantic late Sat into Sat night, then move across the
northern forecast waters on Sun.

$$
GR
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