[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151049
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jan 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N58W to
northern Haiti. Fresh to near gale force NW winds associated with
this front will continue to affect the offshore waters N of 26N
and E of 72W through later this morning. However, rough seas in
northerly swell east of the Bahamas will gradually subside to 8 ft
through Sun morning. Mariners over these waters should exercise
caution.

Atlantic Gale Warning: Marine conditions will briefly improve
for the northwest waters today ahead of a cold front forecast to
emerge off the coast of Florida on Sun morning. Strong south
winds will begin to impact the northwest offshore waters tonight,
with winds rapidly increasing to gale-force early Sun morning.
Near-gale to gale force winds will affect the waters north of
about 27N through Mon morning. Conditions will gradually improve
late Tue, but prior to then, mariners are encouraged to monitor
the latest forecasts and consider avoidance plans for tonight
into Sun.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast
to move over the NW Gulf later this morning then quickly move
southeastward exiting the eastern Gulf by Sun afternoon.
Strong to gale-force northwest to north winds and very rough
seas reaching the range of 10-16 ft will follow the front across
much of the Gulf today and Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will accompany the front. Conditions will improve on Mon as high
pressure builds over the region.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the three warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N09W to near 02N22W. The ITCZ then continues from 02N22W to
00N41W to near 00N49W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
observed from 00N to 06N and E of 18W. A few showers are also
noted from 02N to 08N between 27W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning.

Moderate to fresh southerly winds are W of 89W ahead of a strong
cold front forecast to enter the basin later this morning. Light
to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas of 3-4 ft, except
5 ft in the SW gulf.

For the forecast, strong to gale force NW to N winds and very
rough seas will follow the cold front across much of the Gulf,
today and Sun. The front is forecast to move east of the basin
Sun afternoon, however trailing fresh to strong winds and rough
seas in the eastern gulf will continue to diminish through Mon.
Aside from the hazardous conditions described above, scattered
showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Conditions are
forecast to improve on Mon as high pressure builds over the
region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle to upper level dry air continue to support fair weather
across the basin. Gentle to moderate winds are across the
Caribbean, except for fresh winds along the coast of Colombia.
Seas are in the 3 to 4 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean will
increase to locally strong at night along Colombia and in the
Gulf of Venezuela through Wed night. Winds in the eastern and
central Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh tonight and
prevail through Wed night. Otherwise, a cold front is forecast to
enter the NW Caribbean on Sun morning followed by fresh to locally
strong NW winds and building seas. The front will extend from
central Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon morning where it will start to
weaken before dissipating Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on two
Gale Warnings.

Outside of the Gale Warning area, a 1009 mb low pressure system
located near 30N27W and a cold front extends from the low
pressure to 18N26W, where it transitions into a dissipating cold
front to 18N38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 29N
and between 22W and 27W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
show fresh to strong winds N of 29N and between 22W and 26W,
mainly associated with the convection. The rest of the basin is
dominated by a 1036 mb high pressure system located well north
of the tropical Atlantic. Seas 5-8 ft, with the highest seas
occurring N of 28N and E of 50W.

For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front extends from 31N58W
to Samana Bay in the Dominican Republic. A reinforcing cold
front extends from 31N62W to the entrance of the Windward
Passage. Strong to near gale force winds associated with these
fronts is affecting the offshore waters N of 25N and to the east
of the Bahamas while gale force winds prevail N of 29N and east
of 70W. Gale force winds will diminish early Sat morning and
rough seas associated with it will gradually subside through Sat
night as the fronts merge and move east of the area. A new cold
front is forecast to emerge off the coast of Florida on Sun
morning. Strong S winds will start affecting the NW offshore
waters Sat night, rapidly increasing to gale force early Sun
morning. Near gale to gale force winds will affect the waters N
of 27N through Mon morning. Conditions will gradually improve
late Tue.

$$
Ramos
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