[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jan 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a triple point
north of the area near 39N57W, south to 31N57W and to the
Dominican Republic near 19N70W. A second cold front associated
with a complex 984 mb low pressure system producing hurricane-
force winds, and that is located NW of Bermuda near 37N67W
extends from the low to 31N61W to the Windward Passage near
20N74W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen N of 22N
and between the second cold front and 52W. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass show strong to gale-force winds
over an extensive area N of 25N and between 52W and 77W. Seas
are 10-16 ft. A buoy near 27N71W recently reported wave heights
of 13.5 ft. Mariners over these waters should be aware of very
hazardous marine within the aforementioned described wind and
seas areas.

Atlantic Gale Warning: Marine conditions will briefly improve
for the northwest waters today ahead of a cold front forecast to
emerge off the coast of Florida on Sun morning. Strong south
winds will begin to impact the northwest offshore waters Sat
night, with winds rapidly increasing to gale-force early Sun
morning. Near-gale to gale force winds will affect the waters
north of about 27N through Mon morning. Conditions will gradually
improve late Tue, but prior to then, mariners are encouraged to
monitor the latest forecasts and consider avoidance plans for
Sat night into Sun.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast
to move over the NW Gulf later this morning then quickly move
southeastward exiting the eastern Gulf by Sun afternoon.
Strong to gale-force northwest to north winds and very rough
seas reaching the range of 10-16 ft will follow the front across
much of the Gulf Sat through Sun. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the front. Conditions will improve
on Mon as high pressure builds over the region.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the three warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
07N11W to near 03N19W. The ITCZ then continues from 03N19W to
02N35W to near 00N49W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
observed from 00N to 09N and E of 18W. A few showers are also
noted within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 22W and 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning.

A weak 1016 high pressure system north of Yucatan dominates the
Gulf of Mexico, allowing for tranquil weather conditions thanks
to a dry continental airmass. Surface observations and a recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate moderate to fresh SE-S
winds occurring in the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche, while
moderate or weaker winds are founf elsewhere in the basin. Seas
of 3-5 ft are present in the SW Gulf, while 2-4 ft prevail in
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh southerly winds are W of 91W ahead of a
strong cold front forecast to enter the basin on Sat morning.
Strong to gale force NW to N winds and very rough seas will
follow the front across much of the Gulf, Sat through Sun.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front,
which is forecast to move east of the basin Sun afternoon.
Conditions will improve on Mon as high pressure builds over the
region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak trough stretches across the Gulf of Honduras and satellite
imagery show a few light showers near the boundary. The rest of
the basin is quiet due to a dry airmass limiting the development
of showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to locally strong trades are
occurring near offshore NW Colombia, while the remainder of the
Caribbean experiences moderate or weaker winds. Seas of 3-5 ft
are noted in the south-central and SW Caribbean Sea, while 2-4
ft are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean will
increase to locally strong at night along Colombia and in the
Gulf of Venezuela through Wed night. Winds in the eastern and
central Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh Sat night
and prevail through Wed night. Otherwise, a cold front is
forecast to enter the NW Caribbean on Sun morning followed by
fresh to locally strong NW winds and building seas. The front
will extend from central Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon morning
where it will start to weaken before dissipating Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on two
Gale Warnings.

Outside of the Gale Warning area, a 1009 mb low pressure system
located near 30N27W and a cold front extends from the low
pressure to 18N26W, where it transitions into a dissipating cold
front to 18N38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 29N
and between 22W and 27W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
show fresh to strong winds N of 29N and between 22W and 26W,
mainly associated with the convection. The rest of the basin is
dominated by a 1036 mb high pressure system located well north
of the tropical Atlantic. Seas 5-8 ft, with the highest seas
occurring N of 28N and E of 50W.

For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front extends from 31N58W
to Samana Bay in the Dominican Republic. A reinforcing cold
front extends from 31N62W to the entrance of the Windward
Passage. Strong to near gale force winds associated with these
fronts is affecting the offshore waters N of 25N and to the east
of the Bahamas while gale force winds prevail N of 29N and east
of 70W. Gale force winds will diminish early Sat morning and
rough seas associated with it will gradually subside through Sat
night as the fronts merge and move east of the area. A new cold
front is forecast to emerge off the coast of Florida on Sun
morning. Strong S winds will start affecting the NW offshore
waters Sat night, rapidly increasing to gale force early Sun
morning. Near gale to gale force winds will affect the waters N
of 27N through Mon morning. Conditions will gradually improve
late Tue.

$$
DELGADO
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