[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090956
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to move
off the Texas coast tonight, reaching the SW Gulf by Mon morning.
Gale force winds following the front will reach within 60 nm of
Tamaulipas Mon, then within 60 nm of Veracruz Mon night into early
Tue. Conditions will improve across the basin mid-week as the
front pushes well southeast of the area. 6 to 9 ft seas will build
behind the front, reaching 7 to 11 ft in the W-central Gulf, and 9
to 14 ft in the SW Gulf Mon night into Tue. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra-Leone near
08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N15W to 04N26W
to 07N34W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is evident on satellite imagery
inland over NE Brazil near the ITCZ, extending offshore from the
equator to 04N between 46W and 51W. Similar convection is noted
from 05N to 08N between 27W and 36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front is along the northern Gulf coast. No significant
convection exists along the frontal boundary over the waters.
A weak surface trough is in the SW Gulf just west of the Yucatan
Peninsula with no associated convection. Moderate to fresh E-SE
winds prevail across the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the SW Gulf,
and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 5 to 7 ft in the NW and N-central
Gulf where winds were fresh to strong earlier.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow
will prevail across most of the Gulf ahead of the next cold front
forecast to move off the Texas coast tonight. Fresh to strong
winds will follow the front through the early part of the week,
reaching gale force within 60 nm of Tamaulipas Mon, then Veracruz
Mon night and early Tue. Conditions will improve across the basin
mid-week as the front pushes well southeast of the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Azores high and the Colombian
low continues to support strong winds noted by earlier scatterometer
data within 120 nm of the coast of northern Colombia, accompanied
by 7 to 10 ft seas. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are blowing across
the approach to the Windward Passage along with 5 to 7 ft seas,
with similar winds south of Hispaniola, in the lee of Cuba, and in
the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6
ft prevail across the remainder of the basin. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are noted over the NW Caribbean, mainly west of
85W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support
pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean
and the passages through the early part of the week. Mainly
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate NE-E swell will
impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters through the early part of
the week before decaying. A cold front will approach the Yucatan
Channel Tue, pushing southeast through the NW Caribbean while
weakening through mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area near 31N52W and extends SW to the
Central Bahamas where the front stalls. North of the front, fresh
to locally strong N to NE winds were noted on earlier scatterometer
data. Seas are 8 to 12 ft north of the front, except 5 to 7 ft
north of 28N and west of 75W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft south of the
front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the
vicinity of the front.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic Ocean is under the
influence of the Azores high. Gentle to moderate return flow is
noted north of 24N, between the cold front and 35W. Moderate to
fresh NE to E winds prevail over the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic, with locally strong winds noted north of 23N and east of
20W. Seas are mainly 8 to 11 ft in mixed northerly swell across
the open tropical Atlantic waters, except 5 to 7 ft in the area of
gentle to moderate winds.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will move SE across the
basin through the remainder of the weekend. Fresh to locally
strong NE winds and building seas are in the wake of the front as
high pressure builds toward the area. Another cold front will move
offshore Florida early Mon, then sink across the Bahamas through
mid-week. Strong NE winds will likely follow this front. Low
pressure may form along this front by mid-week.

$$
Lewitsky
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