[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090532
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jan 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to move
off the Texas coast Sunday night, reaching the SW Gulf by Monday
morning. Gale force winds following the front will reach within
60 nm of Tamaulipas Monday, then Veracruz Mon night and Tue.
Conditions will improve across the basin mid-week as the front
pushes well southeast of the area. 6 to 9 ft seas will build
behind the front, reaching 7 to 11 ft in the W-central and SW
Gulf by Mon night into Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra-Leone near
08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N15W to 06N25W
to 06N35W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered strong
convection is evident on satellite imagery just inland over NE
Brazil near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front extends across the far northeastern
waters along 29N. No significant convection exists along the
frontal boundary. Moderate E winds are east of 90W while fresh
to locally strong SE winds are west of 90W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft
in the NW Gulf with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the stationary front across the northern Gulf
coastal waters will dissipate overnight. Fresh to locally strong
SE to S return flow will prevail across most of the Gulf this
weekend ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the
Texas coast Sun night. Fresh to strong winds will follow the
front through early next week, reaching gale force within 60 nm
of Tamaulipas Mon, then Veracruz Mon night and Tue. Conditions
will improve across the basin mid- week as the front pushes well
southeast of the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Azores high and the Colombian
low continues to support strong winds noted by scatterometer
satellite imagery within 120 nm of the coast of northern
Colombia, accompanied by 6 to 9 ft seas. Elsewhere in the basin,
fresh trades and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail. Scattered showers and
storms are noted over the Gulf of Honduras, west of 85W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support
pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central
Caribbean and the passages into early next week. Mainly moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate NE-E swell will impact
the Tropical N Atlantic waters into early next week before
decaying. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Tue,
pushing southeast through the NW Caribbean while weakening
through mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area near 31N55W and extends SW to the
NW Bahamas where the front stalls. North of the front, fresh to
locally strong N to NE winds are noted on scatterometer
satellite data. Seas are 6 to 8 ft N of the front and east of
76W. West of 76W to the coast of Florida, seas are 3 to 6 ft.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic Ocean is under the
influence of the Azores high. Gentle to moderate return flow is
noted north of 24N, between the cold front and 35W. Moderate to
fresh NE to E winds prevail over the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic, with locally strong winds noted east the Canary
Islands. E of 50W, seas are 8 to 10 ft, with the highest seas
near the Canary Islands.

For the forecast W of 65W,  the cold front will move SE across
the basin through the weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE winds
are expected in the wake of the front as high pressure builds
toward the area. Seas will also build across the Bahamas,
Florida Straits, and Windward Passage. Another cold front will
move offshore Florida early Mon, then sink across the Bahamas
through mid-week. Strong NE winds will likely follow this front.
Low pressure may form along this front by mid-week.

$$
Mora
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