[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jan 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force N to NE winds are forecast
to continue within about 90 nm of the coast of Morocco in the
Meteo-France marine zone Agadir through 07/0000 UTC tonight.
Expect seas of 10 to 14 ft in the area. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to
08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 04N23W to 02N35W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Isolated moderate convection is
noted from 02N to 06.5N between 08W and 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure continues to stretch across the Gulf anchored by a
1017 mb high centered just west of Tampa Bay near 28N83W. Tranquil
weather conditions are noted across the basin. Gentle winds
prevail across the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico, with
moderate wind speeds over the western Gulf. Seas are 3-4 ft in the
SW Gulf, 2-3 ft in the NW Gulf, and 1-2 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will cause gentle winds to
continue through this morning. A cold front is forecast to move
off the N Gulf Coast this afternoon, bringing fresh to strong N to
NE winds across the northern Gulf tonight. The front will stall
from near central Florida to northeastern Mexico Fri morning and
dissipate by this weekend. Fresh to locally strong SE to S return
flow will then prevail across most of the Gulf Fri night through
Sat night ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the
Texas coast late Sun. Strong winds will follow the front early
next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers are possibly occurring near the N coast of
Honduras and over portions of the east-central Caribbean, with
the trade wind flow. Otherwise, GOES-16 mid-level water vapor
imagery shows dry air and subsidence over the eastern and central
Caribbean. Strong winds are occurring in the south-central
Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail elsewhere over the central Caribbean, to the south of
Jamaica and Hispaniola. Moderate trades cover the eastern
Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle E winds are
found elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 9 ft
in the south-central to southwest Caribbean, 4 to 5 ft in the E
Caribbean and 2 to 4 ft in the NW portion of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support
pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean
through Sun. The Gulf of Honduras will experience nightly pulses
of fresh winds through Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere through Fri before increasing slightly this
weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the weekend in the
Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N75W to Stuart Florida near
27N80W. Isolated showers and tstorms are seen near the front. Wind
speeds near the front are moderate, with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate SW
to W winds cover the area north of 28.5N between 60W-75W. Gentle
winds prevail elsewhere west of 67W due to weak ridging in the
area. Wind speeds are currently less than 20 kt across the entire
area west of 55W. Seas are below 7 ft west of 72W. Subsiding N
swell is still producing seas of 7-9 ft between 60W and 72W.

A surface trough extends from 31N51W to 22N55W. Fresh to locally
strong trade winds extend east of the trough axis to the coast of
Africa, where seas are mainly 9 to 10 ft. Fresh trades are also
found north of the ITCZ to 20N between 35W-55W, where seas are 7
to 9 ft.

For the forecast W of 65W, moderate northerly swell impacting the
waters north of 25N and east of 70W will subside this morning. A
weak cold front extends from 31N75W to Stuart, Florida. Moderate
to fresh winds are expected with this front as it lifts out toward
the northeast this evening. A second cold front will move off NE
Florida late tonight or early Fri morning. Fresh to strong W to NW
winds are expected along and following the front, north of 29N,
tonight and Fri. High pressure building in the wake of this front
will support fresh to strong winds this weekend across the
Bahamas, Florida Straits and Windward Passage. A third cold front
is forecast to move offshore of Florida early Mon. Fresh to strong
N winds will likely follow the front.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net