[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jan 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A weakening cold front has moved
across the waters offshore of Morocco and inland today, with
strong
to gale-force NE winds continuing behind the boundary as depicted
in morning scatterometer satellite data. This area corresponds to
the Meteo-France marine zone Agadir. Seas are rough, reading 10
to 13 ft. The gale warning is in effect until 07/00Z.  Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at
website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends out slightly off the Sierra Leone
coast from 07N12W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to
02N33W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 10W and 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure continues to stretch across the Gulf anchored by a
1017 mb high near 30N85W. Tranquil weather conditions are noted
across the basin. Isolated thunderstorms are moving northward
into the SE Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan Channel. Surface
observations and the latest ASCAT data indicates gentle winds
across the eastern Gulf with gentle to moderate winds across the
western Gulf.  Buoys across the basin show seas are 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure over the NE Gulf of will support
light to gentle winds through Thu morning. A cold front is
forecast to move off the N Gulf Coast Thu afternoon, bringing
fresh to locally strong N to NE winds across the northern Gulf Thu
night. The front will stall from near central Florida to
northeastern Mexico Fri morning and dissipate by this weekend.
Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will then prevail
across most of the Gulf on Sat ahead of the next cold front
forecast to move off the Texas coast late Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough extends across the Gulf of Honduras with no significant
weather associated with it. The latest ASCAT data depicts strong
to near gale-force winds near the Colombian coast. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail across the eastern Caribbean with light
to gentle winds in the NW basin. Seas are up to 9 ft near the
Colombian coast with 3-6 ft elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, pressure gradient between high pressure north
of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support pulses of
fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through
Sun. The Gulf of Honduras will experience nightly pulses of fresh
winds from Thu night to Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere through Fri before increasing slightly this
weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the weekend in the
Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N59W and
extends to 28N70W. Weak high pressure of 1016 mb is off the
Florida coast near 28N78W. A middle to upper level trough extends
from S Florida to beyond 32N57W, overriding this front, and is
supporting scattered moderate convection on both sides of the
front, N of 27N and between 56W and 67W. Fresh to strong easterly
winds prevail N of 30N between 52W and 60W, where seas are 11-15
ft in NW swell. The NW swell dominates the central Atlantic E of
70W, with seas of 7-12 from N of 24N between 48W and 71W. Moderate
E to SE winds generally prevail across the remainder of the area
N of 20N and S of the front to 75W. The rest of the basin is
dominated by strong high pressure located over the NE Atlc,
providing fairly tranquil weather conditions and moderate to fresh
NE to E winds east of 40W. Seas there are 5-9 ft.

A cold front has pushed off the NE Florida coast with moderate
to locally fresh winds behind it. A trough extends off the South
Florida coast. Seas are 3-6 ft in this area. A trough extends
along the Turks and Caicos from 25N69W to 20N72W. Farther north,
the tail-end of a stationary front is dissipating from 31N67W to
26N70W. A trough extends in the central Atlantic from 31N47W to
20N52W. Scattered showers are along the trough from 27N-31N
between 47W-50W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the western
and central Atlantic with 5-8 ft seas. High pressure extends
across the eastern Atlantic with moderate to fresh winds.

For the forecast W of 65W, northerly swell impacting the waters
north of 25N and east of 73W will subside tonight into early Thu
morning. A cold front will move off NE Florida late Thu night or
early Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected to precede
and follow the front north of 29N Thu night and Fri. High
pressure building in the wake of this front will support fresh
to strong winds over the waters N of Cuba and across the Bahamas
this weekend.

$$
AReinhart
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