[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180410
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Feb 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0410 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: Atlantic Ocean high
pressure, combined with low pressure in northern Colombia, will
continue to support gale-force winds pulsing offshore northern
Colombia at night, with winds possibly reaching 40 knots at
times. The sea heights will range from 12 to 13 ft, highest during
the early morning hours.

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: A cold front is moving off
the Texas coast now and entering the western Gulf. Strong to near
gale-force N winds, with frequent gusts to gale force and
building seas will occur tonight off the Texas and Louisiana
coasts. Sustained gale-force winds and 10 ft seas are forecast in
the SW Gulf near Veracruz Fri afternoon and evening. The front
will reach from the Florida panhandle to 24N95W to the western Bay
of Campeche by Fri morning, and from Ft. Myers, Florida to the
central Bay of Campeche by Sat morning. The front will dissipate
across the Gulf region on Sun, while conditions improve.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force N winds are expected to
develop Sat in the marine zones Irving, Maderia, Meteor,
Canarias, and Agadir according to the latest forecast from Meteo
France. Seas in the area will build to 13-14 ft. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to
03S36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04S to 03N between
17W and 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
gale warnings in the NW and SW Gulf.

A cold front stretches across the NW Gulf from SW Louisiana to
Tampico, Mexico. Frequent gusts to gale force are following the
front, building rough seas. Conditions are more favorable ahead of
the front with a gentle to moderate breeze and moderate seas
throughout the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, sustained gale-force winds and rough seas are
forecast in the SW Gulf near Veracruz Fri afternoon and evening.
The front will reach from the western Florida panhandle to 24N94W
and to the western Bay of Campeche by Fri morning, then weaken as
it reaches from near Ft. Myers, Florida to the central Bay of
Campeche by Sat morning. The front will dissipate across the Gulf
region on Sun with a trough persisting over the SW Gulf. Moderate
to fresh return flow will dominate early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the Special Features section for details about the
pulsing gale-force wind conditions offshore Colombia.

The gradient between a strong 1044 mb high pressure in the
central Atlantic and a 1007 mb low over Colombia is supporting
fresh to strong easterly winds through the majority of the
central and eastern Caribbean with gale force winds near the coast
of Colombia. As wind speed and fetch area increases, seas build
from moderate in the eastern Caribbean to rough in the central
Caribbean. Conditions are more favorable in the NW Caribbean with
moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia
each night through Tue night, while fresh to strong trade winds
will dominate most of the east and central Caribbean today. Fresh
to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage
through Mon night. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds and
building seas will continue over the tropical north Atlantic
waters east of the Lesser Antilles through today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The weather pattern is dominated by a very strong 1044 mb high
pressure in the central Atlantic near 40N45W. This is creating an
enhanced gradient with lower pressure near the ITCZ and South
America. As a result, fresh easterly winds dominate the majority
of the basin, becoming more southerly in the western Atlantic. A
shearline extends across the northern portion of the discussion
area in the central Atlantic from 31N34W to 28N53W. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass revealed strong to near gale force
E-NE winds north of this feature with moderate to fresh winds to
the south. A recent altimeter pass found very rough seas to 14 ft
north of the shearline with rough seas extending as far south as
15N. Conditions are slightly more favorable in the eastern
Atlantic with moderate winds and seas.

For the forecast west of 60W, strong high pressure located N of
the area will shift eastward allowing for the next cold frot to
move off northern Florida by Fri evening. The front will reach
from near 31N75W to near Lake Okeechobee by Sat morning, and from
near 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are expected ahead of the front on Fri. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are forecast in the wake of the front Sat
night into Sun. High pressure in the wake of the front will
control the weather pattern in the region for the remainder of the
forecast period.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France for
updates on the potential gale force winds in the eastern Atlantic
this weekend. Website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html

$$
FLYNN
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