[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172247
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Feb 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2110 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: Atlantic Ocean high
pressure, combined with low pressure in northern Colombia, will
continue to support gale-force winds pulsing offshore northern
Colombia at night through Monday night, with winds possibly
reaching 40 knots at times. The sea heights will range from 12 to
13 ft, highest during the early morning hours.

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: A cold front is moving off
the Texas coast now and entering the western Gulf. Strong to near
gale-force N winds, with frequent gusts to gale force and
building seas will occur tonight off the Texas and Louisiana
coasts. Sustained gale-force winds and 10 ft seas are forecast in
the SW Gulf near Veracruz Fri afternoon and evening. The front
will reach from the Florida panhandle to 24N95W to the western Bay
of Campeche by Fri morning, and from Ft. Myers, Florida to the
central Bay of Campeche by Sat morning. The front will dissipate
across the Gulf region on Sun, while conditions improve.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force N winds are expected to
develop Sat in the marine zone Agadir, near the coast of Morocco
according to the latest forecast from Meteo France. Seas in the
area will build to 13-14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to
02N41W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 01N-07N between 07W-21W. Similar convection is seen south of
03N between 24W-31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is located on the Texas coastline from Beaumont to
Matagorda Bay, about to emerge offshore. A surface ridge spans the
remainder of the Gulf. Fresh S winds are occurring over most of
the basin. Seas are 7-9 ft in the NW Gulf into the north-central
Gulf, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

Please read the Special Features section above for details about
a gale warning for the Gulf of Mexico. Once the front causing the
gales dissipates and conditions improve on Sun, a trough will
persist over the SW Gulf into late Sun. Moderate to fresh return
flow will dominate the basin early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the Special Features section for details about the
pulsing gale-force wind conditions offshore Colombia.

Mainly fresh to strong winds dominate the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea, and in the Windward Passage, as a result of the
tight pressure gradient that is being induced by the strong high
pressure to the north of the area and lower pressure in
Colombia. Strong to near-gale force winds prevail over the south-
central Caribbean Sea. Altimeter data from 1500 UTC this morning
show seas of 12 to 13 ft from 10.5N to 13N between 76W and 77W. A
more recent altimeter pass from 1830 UTC shows seas in excess of 8
ft in the SW Caribbean along a line from 09N77.5W to 15N80W, with
seas of 10-11 ft from 10.5N78W to 14N79.5W. In the NW Caribbean,
Moderate to locally fresh trades and 5-6 ft seas prevail. Seas of
5-8 ft cover the eastern Caribbean, with 8-13 ft seas over the
central basin.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia
each night through Mon night, while fresh to strong trade winds
will dominate most of the east and central Caribbean today. Fresh
to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage
through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N37W to 26N54W. A surface trough
continues from 26N54W to 23N64W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 180 nm to the north of the cold front. Strong to near gale
force NE winds and seas of 12 to 14 ft are occurring to the north
and northwest of the cold front. Fresh to strong E winds and 10
to 13 ft seas are north of the surface trough. A strong 1044 mb
high pressure north of the area near 40N48W is responsible for
fresh or stronger winds with seas 8 ft or higher, elsewhere north
of 15N between 40W-80W, except less than 8 ft west of the
Bahamas. East of 35W, moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-7 ft seas
prevail.

For the forecast west of 60W, seas will gradually subside across
the western Atlantic on Fri as the strong high pressure located N
of the area shifts eastward. The next cold front will move off
northern Florida by Fri evening. The front will reach from 31N75W
to near Lake Okeechobee by Sat morning, and from 31N60W to the NW
Bahamas by Sun morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
forecast in the wake of the front Sat night into Sun. Then, high
pressure behind the front will dominate the region the remainder
of the forecast period.

For the forecast east of 60W, fresh to strong winds will continue
from 13N to 30N, east of 50W, through the weekend. Seas of 12-15
ft will be confined to areas mainly north of 25N through Sat
morning. After that time, the seas over 12 ft will be located
north of 15N and east of 40W.

$$

Hagen
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