[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Feb 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: The pressure gradient
between a building central Atlantic Ocean ridge, and lower surface
pressures in Colombia and Panama, will support strong to minimal
gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the coast
of Colombia, mainly at night, every night through the middle of
next week. The sea heights are forecast to build to a range of 12
feet to 13 feet by Saturday night.

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: A cold front will move
into the NW Gulf of Mexico by early Saturday afternoon. The cold
front will exit the SE Gulf of Mexico late Sunday afternoon. Gale
force N winds are expected behind the front, offshore of Texas
and Tampico in Mexico on Saturday night, then offshore Veracruz in
Mexico on Sunday. The sea heights are forecast to build to 12 feet
on Saturday night, and may exceed 15 feet on Sunday off Veracruz.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 05N/06N along 10W, to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W
to 05N24W, and to 03N35W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 06N southward between 18W and 40W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 150 nm to the south
of the monsoon trough from 13W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning, that is related to the Saturday afternoon
cold front.

A surface ridge passes through 31N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, to NE
Florida, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, beyond 24N97W at
the coast of Mexico.

Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover the
Gulf from 85W westward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 210 nm of the coasts of Texas and Mexico from 22N
to 27N. Isolated moderate covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

Gentle to moderate winds are in the SW Gulf. Light to gentle
winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet
in the northern Gulf, and from 2 feet to 4 feet in the southern
half of the Gulf.

Benign marine conditions will prevail across the basin through
Sat, as high pressure remains in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The
next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat afternoon bringing
gale force northerly winds behind the front offshore the Texas
coast to Tampico, Mexico by Sat night, then gale force winds will
funnel south to offshore Veracruz Sun. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will precede the frontal boundary and the front
should exit the basin late Sun afternoon. Strong N winds are
forecast over most of the remainder of the Gulf, behind the front.
Conditions will gradually improve across the Gulf by Mon night as
high pressure builds across the basin, however moderate to fresh
NE winds will continue through Tue nigh over the SE Gulf and the
Florida Straits.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning, offshore NW Colombia.

A stationary front passes through the central Bahamas, to the
coast of Cuba near 22N77W. A surface trough continues from 22N77W,
to 16N84W in the NW Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is to the northwest of the surface trough.

Strong winds are in the central sections of the Caribbean Sea.
Gentle to moderate NE winds cover the western parts of the area.
The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet in the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea. The exception is the range from 7 feet to
10 feet offshore Colombia. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4
feet in the NW Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong winds have started to propagate into the eastern
Caribbean Sea this morning, and they will continue westward
through the weekend. These conditions will reach the central
Caribbean Sea by tonight, with building rough seas across the
area. Nightly winds will pulse to minimal gale force off Colombia
every night through the middle of next week. The next cold front
is expected to enter the northwest Caribbean Sea on Sunday
afternoon. Expect fresh to strong NE winds behind the next cold
front through Tue, with building seas. The cold front will extend
from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon night, where it will
stall before dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds will funnel
through the Windward Passage, from Monday night through the
middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N69W, through the central
Bahamas, to the coast of Cuba near 22N77W. A surface trough
continues from 22N77W, to 16N84W in the NW Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 180 nm to the east of
the stationary front. Mainly moderate S winds are east of the
front, with gentle NE winds on the W side of the boundary.

A surface trough curves through 26N33W 17N40W 10N42W 05N39W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated to widely scattered moderate is to the east of the
surface trough.

The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet from 18N northward
from 40W eastward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet
from 13N to 23N between 50W and 62W. The sea heights range from 3
feet to 6 feet elsewhere 50W eastward. The sea heights range from
4 feet to 6 feet, elsewhere, from 50W westward.

Strong to near gale-force winds cover the area from 22N to 30N
between 36W and 50W. Mostly strong winds are: from 13N to 19N
within 280 nm of the coast of Africa, from 18N to 23N between 26W
and 34W, from 10N to 23N between 50W and 60W.

A stationary frontal boundary, extending from Bermuda across the
central Bahamas to east central Cuba, will weaken today and
dissipate on Saturday. Fresh to strong trades are forecast for the
offshore waters N of Hispaniola tonight through Sat night. The
next cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida early on Sun
and extend from 31N67W to east-central Cuba near 21N77W early Mon,
and from 27N65W to eastern Cuba Mon evening. Fresh to strong
winds are expected ahead of and behind the front, affecting most
of the area through mid-week.

$$
MT
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