[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111049
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Feb 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a building
ridge over the central Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low
will support strong to minimal gale force winds across the south-
central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia mainly at night,
every night through the middle of next week. Seas are forecast to
build to 12-13 ft by Sat night.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move into the NW
Gulf by early Sat afternoon and exit the SE Gulf late Sun
afternoon. Gale force N winds are expected behind the front
offshore of Texas and Tampico, Mexico Sat night, then offshore
Veracruz on Sun. Seas are forecast to build to 12 ft Sat night,
and could exceed 15 ft Sun off Veracruz.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly over Africa. The ITCZ extends from
07N13W to 01N40W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is found from the Equator to 06N between 21W and 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf region with a 1020 mb high pressure
located in the NE Gulf, just south of Apalachicola, FL. Another
high pressure center of 1019 mb is analyzed over southeast
Louisiana. Patches of low level clouds are noted across the Gulf
waters, more concentrated over the western Gulf. Gentle to
moderate winds are over the SW Gulf, with light to gentle winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the northern Gulf and
2-4 ft over the southern Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure over the northern Gulf will
support benign marine conditions across the basin through Sat
morning. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf by early Sat
afternoon and exit the SE Gulf late Sun afternoon. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will precede the front. Gale force N
winds are expected behind the front offshore of Texas and Tampico,
Mexico Sat night, then offshore Veracruz on Sun. Fresh to strong
N winds are forecast over most of the remainder of the Gulf,
behind the front. Conditions will gradually improve across the
Gulf by Mon night as high pressure builds across the area, however
moderate to fresh NE winds will continue through Tue night over
the southeastern Gulf and the Straits of Florida.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning offshore NW Colombia.

A surface trough is over the NW Caribbean from east-central Cuba
near 21N78W to 17.5N84W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms
are noted to the northwest of the surface trough. Recent data from
buoy 42060 in the eastern Caribbean near 16.4N 63.3W show winds of
23 kt gusting to 29 kt, with seas of 7 ft. Similar conditions are
likely occurring over much of the eastern Caribbean. Fresh to
strong winds are also occurring in the south-central Caribbean,
with near-gale force winds near the coast of Colombia. Therefore,
fresh or stronger winds cover most of the basin east of 78W. Over
the western Caribbean, gentle to moderate NE winds prevail. Seas
are currently 6 to 7 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean,
except 7-10 ft offshore Colombia. Seas are 2-4 ft in the NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds over the eastern
Caribbean will move westward and expand through the central
Caribbean into Saturday. Winds will pulse to gale force off
Colombia every night through the middle of next week. The next
cold front is expected to enter the northwest Caribbean Sun
afternoon, generating fresh to strong NE winds behind it through
Tue, with building seas. The cold front will extend from eastern
Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon night, where it will stall before
dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the
Windward Passage Mon night through the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from Bermuda across the central Bahamas
to the north coast of east-central Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered
showers and tstorms are along the front northeast of the Bahamas.
Mainly moderate S winds are east of the front, with gentle NE
winds on the W side of the boundary.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 28N34W to 08N40W.
Scattered moderate convection is along and within 240 nm east of
the trough axis, mainly from 16N-25N. Fresh to strong NE winds
and seas of 8 to 11 ft are likely occurring within 210 nm west of
the trough axis, north of 19N. Fresh to strong winds are noted
east of the Lesser Antilles to 50W with seas of 8-9 ft over this
area.

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned stationary front
will weaken today and dissipate Sat. Fresh to strong trades are
forecast for the waters N of Hispaniola tonight through Sat
night. The next cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida
early on Sun and extend from 31N67W to east-central Cuba near
21N77W early Mon, and from 27N65W to eastern Cuba Mon evening.
Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead of and behind the front,
affecting most of the western Atlantic through the middle of next
week.

$$
Hagen
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