[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Feb 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a building ridge
over the central Atlantic and lower pressures over NW Colombia
and Panama will tighten, supporting gale force winds in offshore
NW Colombia starting tonight. Additional gales may pulse each
night Fri night and Sat night. Seas in and near the region of
gales will build to 13 ft. Winds will decrease below gale by
Sunday, but the rough seas will persist into early next week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly over Africa, entering the
Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and
extending to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 10N17W to 02N33W. A
surface trough then interrupts the ITCZ and extends from 12N37W
to 00N35W. Another segment of the ITCZ then continues from 02N37W
to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection
is found from 01N to 05N and between 25W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure system positioned just south of Louisiana
near 28N90W dominates the Gulf of Mexico, allowing fairly
tranquil weather conditions. Surface observations indicate that
moderate N-NE winds are occurring in the SE Gulf, including the
Florida Straits. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass depicted
fresh to strong NE winds at the entrance of the Yucatan Channel,
but this has likely diminished by 06 UTC. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail
south of 23N, with seas to 6 ft likely in the Yucatan Channel.
Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 1-3 ft are prevalent
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the northern Gulf will
continue to support generally mild marine conditions across the
basin into Sat. A cold front will move into the northwest Gulf by
late Sat afternoon and exit the southeast Gulf by Sun afternoon.
Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas will
follow the front over most of the Gulf. Gale force winds are
possible over the far west-central and southwest Gulf off Mexico
Sat night into Sun. High pressure will build across the northern
Gulf Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES Section above for details on the
developing gales offshore NW Colombia.

A cold front extends from central Cuba to just east of Cozumel.
Farther south, a weak surface trough is noted along the Bay
Islands of Honduras. Only a few shallow showers are associated
with these boundaries, but recent ship observations indicate
fresh N winds off the coast Belize. Earlier scatterometer
satellite pass show fresh to strong trades in the south-central
Caribbean Sea and west of 84W, with the strongest winds occurring
offshore of northwest Colombia. Seas of 4-7 ft are found in the
central and eastern Caribbean and west of 84W in the western
Caribbean, with the highest seas occurring offshore of northwest
Colombia. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and
seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front over the northwest Caribbean
will stall from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras today.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds west of the front will diminish on
Fri morning as the front dissipates. Winds will increase over the
Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands, between high
pressure north of the area and a broad trough farther east. This
surge of fresh to strong winds along with building seas will
spread into the eastern and central Caribbean tonight through late
Sat. Meanwhile, winds will pulse each night to minimal gale force
off Colombia tonight through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from low pressure north of Bermuda near
26N66W to the central Bahamas to central Cuba. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along and within 120 nm east of the boundary
north of 22N. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicate
that fresh S to SW winds are occurring within 180 nm east of the
cold front, mainly north of 28N, and likely associated with the
scattered showers in the area. Seas west of 60W are 4-6 ft.

A ridge extends east of the front from 1026 mb near 34N46W to
eastern Cuba. A sharp trough is noted farther east, from 31N26W to
18N38W, with a southern portion extending from 12N37W to 00N35W.
This trough is associated with a mid/upper low centered near
28N34W, with an accompanying mid/upper trough extending to 21N50W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident along an
within 90 nm east of the surface trough from 25N to 30N. This
pattern is supporting a large band of fresh to moderate NE winds
and 8 to 10 ft seas between the surface trough and the ridge axis,
north of 15N. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are
noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will
stall this morning from 31N68W to eastern Cuba before dissipating
tonight into Fri. Moderate to fresh winds west and east of the
front will affect most of the area within this period. Fresh to
strong winds are forecast for Hispaniola adjacent waters Fri night
and Sat. The next cold front is forecast to move off northeast
Florida late Sat night into Sun morning. Fresh to strong winds are
expected ahead and behind the front affecting the offshore area
north of 27N into Mon. Gusts to gale force are possible off
northeast Florida Sun and Sun night.

$$
Christensen
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