[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100947
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Feb 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a building ridge
over the central Atlantic and lower pressures over NW Colombia
and Panama will tighten, supporting gale force winds in offshore
NW Colombia starting tonight. Additional gales may pulse each
night Fri night and Sat night. Seas in and near the region of
gales will build to 13 ft. Winds will decrease below gale by
Sunday, but the rough seas will persist into early next week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly over Africa, entering the
Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and
extening to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 10N17W to 02N33W. A
surface trough then interrupts the ITCZ and extends from 12N37W
to 00N35W. Another segment of the ITCZ then continues from 02N37W
to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection
is found from 01N to 05N and between 25W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure system positioned just south of Louisiana
near 28N90W dominates the Gulf of Mexico, allowing fairly
tranquil weather conditions. Surface observations indicate that
moderate N-NE winds are occurring in the SE Gulf, including the
Florida Straits. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass depicted
fresh to strong NE winds at the entrance of the Yucatan Channel,
but this has likely diminished by 06 UTC. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail
south of 23N, with seas to 6 ft likely in the Yucatan Channel.
Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 1-3 ft are prevalent
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the northern Gulf will
continue to support generally mild marine conditions across the
basin into Sat. A cold front will move into the northwest Gulf by
late Sat afternoon and exit the southeast Gulf by Sun afternoon.
Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas will
follow the front over most of the Gulf. Gale force winds are
possible over the far west-central and southwest Gulf off Mexico
Sat night into Sun. High pressure will build across the northern
Gulf Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES Section above for details on the
developing gales offshore NW Colombia.

A cold front extends from central Cuba to just east of Cozumel.
Farther south, a weak surface trough is noted along the Bay
Islands of Honduras. Only a few shallow showers are associated
with these boundaries. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
show fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean Sea
and W of 84W, with the strongest winds occurring offshore NW
Colombia and in the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 4-7 ft are found in
the central and eastern Caribbean and W of 84W in the western
Caribbean, with the highest seas occurring offshore NW Colombia.
An altimeter satellite pass a few hours ago recorded wave heights
up to 6 ft between Hispaniola and the ABC islands. Elsewhere in
the basin, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and
central Caribbean through Thu, pulsing to minimal gale force off
Colombia Thu night through Sat. A cold front over the northwest
Caribbean will stall from eastern Cuba to southern Nicaragua
adjacent waters Thu. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds west of the
front will diminish on Fri morning as the front dissipates. A cold
front will enter the northwest Caribbean on Sun followed by fresh
to strong N to NE winds and building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from an intensifying storm SE of the Outer
Banks to the NW Bahamas and central Cuba. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along and within 120 nm E of the boundary. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh S winds
are occurring E of the cold front, mainly N of 28N, and likely
associated with the convection in the area. Seas W of 60W are 3-6
ft.

Over the eastern Atlantic, the weak low pressure we have been
following for a few days has weakened into a surface trough,
extending from 30N27W to 16N37W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted N of 27N and between 24W and 31W. The
pressure gradient between this system and a 1028 mb high pressure
centered near 33N47W results in fresh to strong NE winds N of 16N
and between the trough and 57W. Seas of 8-12 ft prevail in the
described region. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of
3-6 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will
transition to a stationary front on Thu morning from 31N69W to
eastern Cuba before dissipating Thu night into Fri. Moderate to
fresh winds west and east of the front will affect most of the
area within this period. Fresh to strong winds are forecast for
Hispaniola adjacent waters Fri night through Sun. The next cold
front is forecast to move off northeast Florida on Sun morning.
Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind the front
affecting the offshore area north of 27N through Mon afternoon.
Gust to gale force winds are likely over the northern offshores
Sun night.

$$
Christensen
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