[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jan 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 07N12W to 01N49W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 21W
and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle Sw to near
25N91W. High pressure is centered over the NW Gulf. A surface
trough prevails across the SW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds are
found SE of the front, with light to gentle winds prevailing
elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range north of 25N with seas of
2-4 ft south of 25N.

For the forecast, the front will move E across the northern
Gulf, exiting the area late tonight. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms east of the front will be confined to the
eastern Gulf through this evening. High pressure will move across
the northern Gulf in the wake of the front, leading to gentle to
moderate winds for the remainder of the weekend. Fresh to strong
SE to S flow will return to the Gulf late Sun night through Tue,
ahead of the next cold front, which should move off the Texas
coast Tue. Patchy dense marine fog is possible at times,
especially within 20 nm of the U.S. coastline from Florida
through Texas, this weekend through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8
ft range over the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh trades will prevail in the central
Caribbean this weekend, with moderate to fresh east winds in the
eastern basin and mainly moderate winds in the western Caribbean.
Locally strong winds will pulse nightly within 90 nm of the
Colombian coast. Similar conditions will prevail early next week,
with some increase in winds possible by mid-week over the
eastern and central Caribbean, as well as the tropical N Atlantic
waters. During that time, fresh to strong winds will pulse in
the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of
Honduras. Easterly swell will continue to gradually subside in
the tropical Atlantic through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N26W to 27N38W, then becomes
stationary to near 26N57W. Otherwise, high pressure prevails
across much of the Atlantic waters. Moderate to locally fresh
winds prevail across the Atlantic discussion waters. Seas are in
the 5-6 ft range over much of the waters north of 20N, except N
of 28N between 25W and 45W, where northerly swell is bringing
seas of 8-10 ft across those waters. South of 20N, seas of 5-7 ft
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, A cold front will move off the
Georgia and northern Florida coasts late tonight or early Sun.
Fresh SW to W winds just ahead of the front should be confined to
areas north of 30N east of northern Florida tonight. E swell
east of 67W and south of 24N will continue to gradually subside
through tonight. Trade winds are expected to increase during the
middle of next week south of 25N and east of 75W. During that
time, fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly N of Hispaniola
and in the Windward Passage.

$$
AL
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