[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Dec 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough does not reach the forecast area at this
time. The ITCZ begins near the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W
and extends SW to 04N20W to 03N33W, and to 02N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 180 nm north of the ITCZ
between 21W and 32W. Similar convection is also from 01N to 04N
between 34W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front continues to move eastward over the Gulf of
Mexico, extending from near Pensacola, FL, to the west-central
Gulf near 24.5N95W. An area of showers and thunderstorms is
ahead of the cold front over the NE Gulf, north of 25N. Mariners
may encounter heavy downpours reducing visibility below 2 miles,
frequent lightning, and gusty winds with the strongest
thunderstorms. Moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds are
occurring in the NE Gulf ahead of the front, with mainly gentle
to moderate NW winds in the NW Gulf and light to gentle winds in
the western Gulf. A surface trough axis along 94W in the Bay of
Campeche is producing moderate SE winds E of the axis and gentle
NW winds on the W side of the axis. The latest buoy observations
are reposting 3 to 5 ft seas across most of the basin, with seas
peaking at 5 ft near the strongest winds offshore the FL
Panhandle.

The warm, moist area over the relatively cool shelf waters along
the northern Gulf coast is leading to marine fog across portions
of the waters. Within 60 nm of the U.S. coast from the Florida-
Alabama border west, areas of dense fog are at times restricting
visibility to 1 nm or less, leading to hazardous boating
conditions. The weather pattern is conducive to additional
marine fog development that may prevail through the weekend.

For the forecast, The front will slide E across the northern
Gulf, exiting the area late tonight. The scattered thunderstorms
east of the front will be confined to the eastern Gulf through
today. High pressure will move across the northern Gulf in the
wake of the front, leading to gentle to moderate winds for the
remainder of the weekend. Fresh to strong SE to S flow will
return to the Gulf late Sun night through Tue, ahead of the next
cold front, which should move off the Texas coast Tue. Patchy
dense marine fog is possible at times, especially within 20 nm
of the U.S. coastline from Florida through Texas this weekend
through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered NE of Bermuda is dominating weather for
the basin, suppressing any significant convection and supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds across the basin. A recent
scatterometer pass noted strong winds within 90 nm of the NE
Colombian coast, where seas are up to 9 ft due to the strong
pressure gradient from the aforementioned high and lower
pressure over Colombia. 6 to 8 ft seas prevail across the
eastern and central basin due to the fresh trades, with 3 to 5
ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh trades will prevail in the central
Caribbean this weekend, with moderate to fresh winds in the
eastern basin and mainly moderate winds in the western Caribbean.
Locally strong winds will pulse nightly within 90 nm of the
Colombian coast. Similar conditions will prevail early next
week, with some increase in winds possible by mid-week. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse in the Windward Passage south of
Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras next week. Easterly swell
will continue to gradually subside in the tropical Atlantic
today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge remains the dominant feature
across the tropical Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil
weather conditions. A weak cold front continues to move
gradually eastward, extending from 31N28W to 27N38W The boundary
transitions to a stationary front that stretches to 26N58W, as
indicated in the latest scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh
NE-E winds are present north of the frontal boundary, where seas
are 6 to 9 ft. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics support a large area of moderate
to locally fresh trade winds, mainly south of 25N and between
the SE Bahamas and 30W where seas are 6 to 8 ft in NE swell. An
area of SE to S moderate to fresh winds is north of the Bahamas
and offshore central and NE FL ahead of the approaching front
from the Gulf of Mexico, where seas are 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will move off the
Georgia and northern Florida coasts late tonight or early Sun.
Fresh to strong SW to W winds just ahead of the front should be
confined to areas north of 29N east of northern Florida tonight.
Large E swell east of 67W and south of 24N will continue to
gradually subside today. Fresh to strong winds may pulse nightly
during the middle of next week N of Hispaniola and in the
Windward
Passage.

$$
Mora
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